2023-11-10 17:47:55
Next week, Dubai will hold its prestigious aerospace competition against the backdrop of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, which is driving up demand for weapons while closing airspace and making flights longer and more expensive for some airlines.
The biennial Dubai Airshow is typically a barometer of the aviation industry that has in the past resulted in a frenzy of commercial deals for plane makers Airbus and Boeing. It is also an opportunity to test the mood of gun buyers.
Analysts say the war in Gaza is expected to drive up demand for weapons, adding to the surge over the past 18 months when the United States and its allies rearmed Ukraine against Russia.
Washington has pledged to provide Israel with the weapons it needs in its fight against Hamas, which Israeli authorities say killed 1,400 people when it stormed into Israel on October 7. Israeli reprisals against Gaza have left more than 10,000 dead, according to health authorities in the besieged enclave.
Organizers said they expected more than 1,400 companies from 95 countries, including four listed in Israel.
The fighting has disrupted commercial passenger transport, with airlines suspending flights to Israel, where the airport has been the target of Hamas rocket fire and tourism has collapsed.
As Middle East officials warn of the risk of regional contagion, travelers are canceling or postponing planned vacations to the Middle East and North Africa.
The Nov. 13-17 event “will be very interesting from a geopolitical point of view,” said Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisories.
The war in Israel is not expected to derail long-planned orders, but carriers in regions looking to exponentially increase air travel – such as Saudi Arabia – could face questions over whether the Conflict dampens future growth plans, he said.
Emirates chief operating officer Adel Al Redha said last week that market demand in parts of Asia had been “slightly affected” by the war, now in its fifth week.
“While we do not want conflict, we have a history of adapting our operations and mitigating any risks,” he said.
The chief executive of the national airline of Israel’s neighbor Jordan said there had been a significant drop in bookings, while the airline was now flying longer routes to avoid Israeli airspace, which which led to an increase in operating costs.
“This is our destiny,” said Royal Jordanian CEO Samer Majali, lamenting the region’s history of conflict and instability.
RESUMPTION OF LARGE CARRIERS
Despite this, the show is expected to result in orders highlighting the recovery in demand for long-haul jets, with Emirates evaluating more Airbus A350s, Boeing 787s or Boeing 777Xs.
The main question mark concerns the ability of manufacturers to overcome supply chain or certification problems to deliver their latest models to the region, particularly for the 777X.
A widely anticipated new order from Emirates would give a boost to the 777X, which is already five years behind schedule.
Airline President Tim Clark said in May that he hoped to receive the long-delayed 777-9 version between July and October 2025.
But Al Redha told Aviation Week last week that the plane was now planned for October 2025, and industry sources said the program faced continued pressure on its development schedules, which are in the hands of regulators .
Boeing said there was no change in its estimates, which its latest estimates called for delivery of the plane in 2025.
Saudi airline Riyadh Air could unveil a major order for narrow-body jets, with Boeing currently the most favored in a tight competition with Airbus, sources say.
Flydubai, Etihad and Indian airline IndiGo have also sought deals ahead of the event. None of them were available for comment. (Reporting by Alexander Cornwell, Tim Hepher and Valerie Insinna; Editing by Alex Richardson)
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