By Hans Bentzien
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)–According to a survey by the European Central Bank (ECB), consumers in the euro area expect inflationary pressure in the euro area to fall again. As the latest ECB consumer survey for August shows, their three-year expectations remained unchanged, but were still well above the ECB’s inflation target of 2 percent. In twelve months, inflation is expected to fall by 5.0 (July survey: 5.0) percent and in three years by 3.0 (3.0) percent.
The ECB itself had forecast in September that inflation in 2024 would average 2.3 percent for the year. It will update this forecast in December and at the same time publish a forecast for 2025 for the first time. The economists surveyed as part of the Survey of Professional Forecasters had also seen inflation in July 2024 at 2.1 percent. Here is a current survey in October.
According to consumer estimates, the economic situation in the euro area will deteriorate somewhat less severely in the next twelve months than recently expected. They now expect gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by 1.7 (1.9) percent.