Argentina faces an increased risk of severe spring floods and heavy rainfall driven by El Niño. According to a report by the Faculty of Sciences Exact and Natural at the University of Buenos Aires, the weather phenomenon will peak in the coming months, threatening regions across the Litoral with rising waters and overflowing river basins.
As spring approaches across Argentina, a new climate report points to an intensifying weather pattern that threatens widespread water excess. According to the Faculty of Sciences Exact and Natural at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), El Niño has established itself as the primary driver behind a forecast featuring precipitation levels well above seasonal averages across large parts of the country, heightening the threat of overflowing river basins and saturated soils.
The Litoral and Northeast Regions Face Highest Flood Risks
The Litoral region emerges as the area facing the most severe threat of high water, persistent waterlogging, and outright flooding due to intense storms linked to El Niño. National seasonal climate forecasts project very high probabilities of above-normal rainfall specifically targeting the northern Litoral, alongside the western Cuyo region, La Pampa, southwestern Buenos Aires province, and northeastern Patagonia.
According to the report, areas of primary concern include Misiones, Corrientes, eastern Formosa, Chaco, and Santa Fe. When combined with heavy downpours occurring simultaneously in southern Brazil and northern Uruguay, these regions form a concentrated core of intense precipitation that places immense extra pressure on already sensitive rivers and natural drainage basins.
Matilde Rusticucci, CONICET researcher and professor emérita at the Department of Atmosphere and Oceans Sciences at UBA, noted that they came from a winter in which the effects of El Niño had already begun to be felt, with moderately milder temperatures on average and heavier rains in several regions, and stated that unfortunately, all these impacts would be amplified in the coming months because it is during the spring that this phenomenon manifests itself with the greatest force over their country.
Soil Saturation and Upstream Rains Compound Rural and Urban Vulnerabilities
The mechanics behind the impending floods involve more than just local downpours. Rusticucci explained that heavier-than-usual rainfall frequently dumps water faster than the ground’s natural capacity to absorb it. This local runoff is compounded significantly by heavy precipitation upstream in southern Brazil, which directly swells water volumes flowing downstream into Argentina.
As an early indicator of this dynamic, specialists point to the closure of the Devil’s Throat at Iguazu Falls. The surge in water volume restricts normal drainage, creating a cascading effect throughout regional river networks.
Buenos Aires and Central Argentina Under Observation for Slow Runoff
While the most acute flood risks center on the northern provinces, the province of Buenos Aires remains under close observation. Regional geography features extensive areas where natural water runoff is notoriously slow. When multiple storms hit in rapid succession, the lingering water has nowhere to go.
Rusticucci noted that local streams will struggle to drain efficiently if storm systems continually chain together over the same saturated ground. Reports detailing livestock movements in the Delta region due to rising water levels already signal the early operational impacts on agriculture and rural life.
Spring Temperatures Forecasted to Stay Moderate Amid High Humidity
In addition to rainfall anomalies, the spring climate outlook alters expectations for regional temperatures. Central and southern Argentina will experience temperatures ranging between normal and lower than usual. This cooler pattern encompasses most of Cuyo, La Pampa, Buenos Aires province, parts of Córdoba, southwestern Santa Fe, and north-central Patagonia.
Conversely, northern Argentina expects normal or slightly above-normal average temperatures. Rusticucci attributed the generally muted thermal range across the rest of the country to persistent cloud cover driven by high atmospheric humidity, which suppresses daily temperature swings.
