"Erdogan's Re-election: A Victory for Nationalism and Authoritarianism in Turkey"

2023-05-29 00:00:00

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was re-elected on Sunday after the second round of the presidential election in Turkey. Despite a difficult start to the campaign and strong Turkish dissatisfaction with his management of the economy, the Islamo-conservative and authoritarian president, at the head of the country for 20 years, has been able to take advantage of the nationalist fiber of his electorate, disenchanted of the West. What relieve the Russian President, Vladimir Putin.

“It is time to put aside the disputes of the electoral campaign and to achieve unity and solidarity around the dreams of our nation”, launched the indéboulonnable “ Reis (leader), 69, to the crowd gathered in front of the presidential palace in Ankara.

Around 11 p.m. local time, the official Anadolu agency gave him 52.1% of the vote, against 47.9% for his social-democratic rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. The electoral commission then confirmed his victory. He will therefore be entitled to another five-year term, at the end of this election which forced him for the first time to a second round.

Missed right turn for Kiliçdaroglu

Sami Aoun, professor emeritus at the University of Sherbrooke and director of the Observatory of the Middle East and North Africa at the Raoul Dandurand Chair, is not surprised by the results: “Erdoğan knew how to divert the public debate in favor of his Islamo-nationalist discourse. He also bet on the fact that Turkey is becoming an important geopolitical force under his leadership, between its role in NATO and its affinities with Russia. »

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also congratulated his Turkish counterpart. “Your victory in this election is the logical result of your dedicated work at the head of the Turkish Republic, a clear proof of the support of the Turkish people for your efforts to strengthen state sovereignty and pursue an independent foreign policy”, a- he said, according to the Kremlin’s website.

US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak instead recalled on Sunday that their countries were allies within NATO, while congratulating the Turkish leader. Justin Trudeau, meanwhile, said he looked forward to “further strengthening” ties between Canada and Turkey. Furthermore, French President Emmanuel Macron pointed out that he and Erdoğan have many challenges to face together, including restoring “peace in Europe”.

Authoritarian grip on power

In his speech on Sunday, Erdoğan called his re-election a victory for democracy. However, like Vladimir Putin, the Turkish president has multiplied authoritarian attempts to silence his opponents for 20 years.

Remember that he imprisoned his Kurdish opponent, Selahattin Demirtaş, as well as several other critical voices, especially since a coup attempt against him in 2016. Freedom of the press is also limited in Turkey, where laws restrict the right to speak on social networks. “Like Viktor Orbán, in Hungary, he maintains power through populism and demagogy,” according to Mr. Aoun.

Thus, neither the desire for change of part of the electorate, nor the restrictions on freedoms, nor the hyper-presidentialization of power weighed in the face of the desire for security and stability of the Turks.

Yet the president faced his fiercest opposition to date. But Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the leader of the Alliance of the Nation, a grouping of six opposition parties, has not been able to take advantage of the record inflation which is undermining the country and the consequences of the earthquakes which have 50,000 dead and 3 million displaced since last February.

Mr. Kiliçdaroglu expressed Sunday evening his “sadness” for the future of Turkey. “We have experienced one of the most unfair electoral processes in recent years,” he said, adding that “many difficulties await the country.”

During the two weeks that separated the two rounds of the election, Mr. Kiliçdaroglu tried the risky gamble of seducing more right-wing voters. In particular, he had promised to expel Syrian refugees living in Turkey, and this, “in the next year”. This statement, made during a joint press conference with the far-right politician Ümit Özdag, of the anti-immigration so-called “Victory” party, marked a change in tone from his more unifying remarks at the start of the campaign.

“Erdoğan forced his opponent to turn to the right, even though he is secular, republican and socialist,” explains Mr. Aoun. Voters therefore perceived contradictions in Mr. Kiliçdaroglu’s speech, which favored the outgoing president.

According to the professor, the Turkish electorate is becoming “more and more nationalistic and conservative”. Erdoğan has bet, he says, on their “disenchantment with the West, recalling Europe’s imperialist past which defeated and dismembered the Ottoman Empire”.

This is also why the outgoing president has mobilized more Turkish-speaking diasporas abroad and Sunni Muslim voters. Marginalized communities, including LGBTQ+ people, on the other hand, feared his re-election. Mr. Erdoğan has repeatedly insulted and used them to attack the opposition and accuse it of wanting to destroy family values.

Several pressing issues await the re-elected president, particularly on the international scene, where Turkey is playing an increasingly influential role. NATO allies are waiting, among other things, for Turkey to lift its veto on Sweden’s entry into the Atlantic Alliance, which has been blocked since May 2022. Not to mention, of course, the many challenges the president faces in his own country, which is still recovering from the February earthquakes.

Sunday evening, a little after midnight, he concluded his speech by reciting a poem by a Turkish nationalist poet, Arif Nihat Asya, which is similar to a prayer. He sparked a Amen from the tens of thousands of people gathered outside the presidential palace.

With Agence France-Presse