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Inflation, unemployment, foreign investment and other issues involving the Brazilian economy directly impact different market segments. Having the challenges of this scenario to solve, the current government listed macroeconomic objectives to foster economic growth, full employment, price stability and inflationary control.
During a Febraban event in November 2022, Roberto Campos Neto, president of the Central Bank, commented that world inflation is at a peak that, by all indications, tends to slow down or stabilize. And, if it stabilizes, the challenge will be to keep it under control so that the economy reacts again.
In this way, income figures (and income distribution), GDP, employability, economic growth, etc., are linked to this action. “As macroeconomics reinforces what the foreign market understands of a country, observing what the trends are for these areas can help to make some predictions for Brazil”, explains Carlos Eduardo Boechat, Associate Director of Industry X at Accenture, speaker, mentor and specialist in high-impact digital transformation in companies and professionals.
The current scenario in different sectors
As for unemployment, the good news is that the numbers are falling. According to data from the Continuous National Household Sampling Survey (PNAD) released on the Government website, the unemployment rate from August to October was 8.3% (9 million people). The survey points out that this is the lowest unemployment rate recorded in the period since 2014. “Forecasts for 2023 reflect a loss and, therefore, there is an expectation of a slowdown in growth that has been maintained since the 3rd quarter of 2021”, concludes Boechat .
As in the previous year, a measure that is directly related to the purchasing power of Brazilians is precisely the adhesion to the Brazil Aid. In early January, the current president signed the provisional measure that guarantees this benefit, as well as the Gas Aid. “The measure, in addition to being political, has a direct impact on the consumption power of the poorest families in the country. Taking into account the number of unemployed people and also vulnerable people, it could be an emergency measure”, says Boechat.
Another discussion present in the government is the so-called spending ceiling. Economist Gabriel Galípolo recently stated that the average spending compared to the national revenue shows that the country concentrates income and spends a lot without sustainable development. For Boechat “the tendency is for Lula’s government to invest more in sanitation, energy transition and urban mobility. Thus, in addition to a more future-proof development, it also ends up encouraging the economy to grow again”.
During the transitional process, there may also be demonstrations of interest from other countries with regard to new investments. The President of the United States, Joe Biden, announced in November 2022 that he will invest more than BRL 158 million in Brazilian mining. For the expert, “Brazil wants to reduce dependence on production chains dominated by China. With this, the country benefits from fundamental investments that guarantee more jobs, income and possible market growth, mainly in industry”, says Carlos Eduardo Boechat.
The civil construction sector projects, according to data from the Brazilian Construction Industry Chamber (CBIC), a forecast of less than 5% growth. The position is still optimistic and takes into account the economy maintaining the level of growth and no loss or crisis. The positive estimate considers the sale of real estate and new financing, in addition to construction and renovations in homes. “Forecasts for the sector are heading towards an increase of up to 2% in 2023, provided that housing programs and government incentives weigh on this consumption”, concludes Boechat.
It is expected that with the new management and institution of the Ministries, new measures and supplements may emerge to revive the economy and benefit the growth of companies, industries and professionals.
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