2024-02-13 04:11:43
Ghada Halawi wrote in “Call of the Nation”:
No assurances and no agreement soon. There are many scenarios once morest the backdrop of the deteriorating situation in Gaza and the city of Rafah, and all of them do not indicate that an imminent solution is on its way to being announced. Unlike last week, when talk began to advance regarding a framework for a ceasefire solution. But the people of solution and connection are looking forward to a settlement, and this is what Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Abdullahian told the officials, and he carried with him the truth of what the negotiations reached and the details of the offers presented for a ceasefire.
The Israeli insistence on invading Rafah so that its fate would be similar to Gaza might drag the region into a comprehensive confrontation, thus displacing the Palestinians who had previously been displaced from Gaza, and deporting them to Sinai “or to other places” in Jordan, which means the beginning of the end for the Palestinian issue. In the scenario that Israel seeks, it would control Rafah, then Gaza, and expel the Palestinians except for a small number who remain under its control. It then moves its war to southern Lebanon as part of a rapid military operation that it carries out following it has managed to control its northern borders and strengthened them with the presence of more than one brigade from the Israeli army. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is searching for a way out of his crisis, but he will only find it by achieving a military goal from Gaza to southern Lebanon. Such a scenario is met with maximum preparations by Hezbollah, which still adheres to the words of its Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, not to allow the fall of Hamas. If Israel completes the implementation of its plan to eliminate Hamas, the danger will double and force the axis of resistance to enter into a wide-scale war.
According to the description of those concerned, the situation is extremely dangerous, as neither a comprehensive war nor a settlement has matured. The scales of the settlement may be ahead of the possibilities of war, but its features have not been clarified and the parties are still seeking to improve their conditions in the field.
During his visit to the region, Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Abdullahian carried a summary of the solution formulas proposed with the Americans through Omani mediation, and the outcome of what Hamas reported regarding the meetings of France and Egypt regarding the framework agreement for a ceasefire. A short time ago, Iran received an American offer for a comprehensive settlement from Gaza to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, based on the two-state solution. The condition was stopping the war in Gaza as a prelude to talking regarding other matters, and that Iran does not negotiate on behalf of its allies, but rather coordinates with them and leaves them to assess the situation and make the decision. the appropriate. In parallel, the possibilities were presented if the Israeli government insisted on entering the city of Rafah under the pretext of releasing prisoners, especially since the United States gave it cover for this by stipulating its President Joe Biden that its entry be based on prior planning. If Israel attacks Rafah and achieves its military objectives, this means that the axis is facing a difficult dilemma, because the fall of Rafah means the fall of Gaza and then moving to other axes, the first of which is Lebanon, where the disastrous scenario is that Israel launches a series of successive raids on Lebanon without its forces advancing into Lebanon.
However, a scenario like this is matched by another from the resistance axis, which says that what Netanyahu is doing will lead to a comprehensive war to protect his future, and therefore dealing with reality will be extremely cautious, but if the expansion of the war is imposed, then Israel will be surprised by the level of the military war that will be waged once morest it and the type of weapons used.
It is the most difficult month since the beginning of the flood process, as there will either be a major settlement or a comprehensive war. The game cards are in different hands, and each has its own purpose and goals. It is certain that all parties except Netanyahu want to reach a ceasefire, and it is not unlikely to pressure Hamas to accept the agreement in exchange for international and regional guarantees and to reject the Israeli demand to transform it into a political party.
Hamas, which carried out the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation without returning to its allies, received a decisive answer from them regarding the negotiations by agreeing to what it deems appropriate. The axis will prevent the fall of Hamas, but it will leave it free to decide on the terms of any agreement it reaches with Israel under Egyptian and Qatari sponsorship and with direct participation from America and France.
The picture will become clearer in the meeting expected to be held today in Cairo to complete the negotiations that will emerge in the form of a more flexible agreement than those discussed at the beginning, due to everyone’s need for a settlement, including the United States, which is preparing to enter its elections with the presence of Netanyahu, who makes the situation difficult for it, and Egypt, which will double the migration of Palestinians. It has its own economic burdens, as does Jordan. As for Iran, it has not yet stopped its negotiations with the Americans, and this in itself is an indication of its desire to reach a settlement in which Lebanon will be an essential part following Gaza.
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