Escalating Fears of Civil War in South Sudan Amidst Treason Trial Tensions

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September 16, 2025

Juba, South Sudan – Fears of a return to full-scale civil war are mounting in South Sudan after the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM-IO) called for “regime change,” escalating a political crisis triggered by the arrest and charges leveled against suspended Vice-President Riek Machar.

Machar, currently under house arrest, now faces serious accusations including murder, treason, and crimes against humanity. The SPLM-IO has vehemently denounced these charges, characterizing them as a politically motivated “witch-hunt” designed to dismantle the fragile 2018 peace accord that brought an end to five years of devastating conflict.

Escalating Tensions and Foreign Involvement

The situation is further complex by the deployment of additional troops from neighboring Uganda to juba, the capital of South Sudan.This move has fueled concerns about potential violence and the widening of the conflict. The Ugandan government maintains this deployment is based on a pre-existing agreement to support the South Sudanese army.

Recent reports from the United Nations have highlighted systemic corruption within South Sudan, accusing government officials of misappropriating billions of dollars in oil revenue. This alleged mismanagement has deprived citizens of essential services and is seen as a key driver of the ongoing instability. according to a 2024 report by the UN, an estimated $25.2 billion in oil revenue has been unaccounted for since the nation’s independence in 2011.

A History of Conflict

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011 following decades of struggle under the leadership of president Salva Kiir and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). However, just two years later, the nation plunged into civil war when Kiir dismissed Machar as his vice-president, alleging a coup attempt.

The ensuing conflict, largely characterized by ethnic divisions between supporters of Kiir and Machar, resulted in an estimated 400,000 deaths and displaced over 2.5 million people – more than a fifth of the contry’s population. The 2018 peace agreement led to Machar’s reinstatement as vice-president in a unity government, intended to pave the way for democratic elections.

The current Flashpoint

The recent escalation began in early march when clashes erupted between the army and the White Army militia, previously allied with Machar during the civil war, in the Upper Nile state. This culminated in the overrun of a military base in Nasir. A UN helicopter attempting to evacuate troops on March 7th was also fired upon, resulting in casualties, including a high-ranking army general.

Following these incidents, Machar and several colleagues were placed under house arrest, accused of inciting rebellion. In September, Machar faced a barrage of formal charges, prompting his party to condemn the government as a “dictatorship” and demand a change in leadership. The SPLM-IO issued a call to its supporters to prepare for “national service,” suggesting they utilize “all means available” to regain control of the country. Despite the strong rhetoric, no large-scale troop mobilization has been reported thus far.

The Fragile Peace Accord

While Machar’s inclusion in the unity government was a central tenet of the 2018 peace agreement, many of its provisions remain unimplemented. A major sticking point is the security arrangement, which outlined the integration of former rebel forces and government soldiers into a unified national army of 83,000 troops, with the demobilization of remaining militias.This process has stalled, leaving numerous armed groups aligned with various political factions.

moreover,the establishment of a court,with African Union assistance,to prosecute perpetrators of violence has been delayed due to reluctance from those in power to face potential prosecution. Scheduled elections, originally slated for 2022, have been repeatedly postponed, and a new constitution has yet to be drafted.

Key Event	Date
South Sudan Gains Independence	2011
Civil War erupts	2013
2018 Peace Agreement Signed	september 2018
Machar and Associates Placed Under House Arrest	March 2024
SPLM-IO Calls for “Regime Change”	September 2025

did You Know? South Sudan is the world’s youngest country, gaining independence in 2011 after decades of conflict with sudan.

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The Shadow of Corruption

The United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has accused the nation’s political elite of widespread corruption, alleging the siphoning of billions of dollars in oil revenue. A recent 101-page report, “Plundering a Nation,” details how over $25.2 billion in oil revenues have been systematically misappropriated since independence, depriving citizens of vital resources.

The report specifically cites the government’s “Oil for Roads” program, which allegedly diverted an estimated $2.2 billion into areas of political patronage rather than infrastructure development. Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission, stated that corruption is “the engine of South Sudan’s decline.”

The Kiir-Machar Rivalry

The tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar stem from long-standing political ambitions and ethnic divisions – Kiir is Dinka,while Machar is Nuer. The rivalry ignited the 20

How might the treason trial impact the implementation of the R-ARCSS peace agreement?

The Political Landscape & Rising Instability

South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is once again teetering on the brink of renewed conflict. The ongoing treason trial of prominent political figures, coupled with existing ethnic tensions and a fragile peace agreement, is fueling escalating fears of a return to civil war. The situation is notably concerning given the country’s history of brutal conflict and the immense humanitarian crisis it faces. Key to understanding the current crisis is recognizing the deep-seated political rivalries that continue to plague the nation. These stem from the power struggles between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, a dynamic that has defined South Sudan’s turbulent post-independence period.

The arrest and subsequent trial of individuals accused of plotting to overthrow the government have been widely criticized as politically motivated. This has exacerbated existing distrust and raised concerns about the fairness and impartiality of the judicial system. The accusations center around alleged attempts to destabilize the government and incite violence, accusations vehemently denied by the defendants and their supporters. This trial is not occurring in a vacuum; it’s happening against a backdrop of delayed implementation of key provisions of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

Key Players and Their Motivations

Understanding the motivations of the key players is crucial to assessing the risk of renewed conflict.

* President Salva Kiir: Primarily focused on maintaining power and consolidating control over the government and security apparatus. His supporters view the treason trial as a necessary step to safeguard stability.

* Vice President Riek Machar: While officially committed to the peace agreement, Machar’s political base remains wary of Kiir’s intentions. The trial has deepened this distrust and raised questions about the future of their power-sharing arrangement.

* Opposition Groups: Various opposition groups, some aligned with Machar and others self-reliant, view the trial as a pretext for suppressing dissent and eliminating political rivals. Thay are increasingly vocal in their criticism of the government.

* Regional Actors: Neighboring countries, including Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda, have a vested interest in South Sudan’s stability. Though, their involvement has frequently enough been characterized by competing interests and a lack of coordinated action. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) continues to play a mediating role, but its effectiveness is limited.

The Role of Ethnic Tensions

South Sudan’s conflict is deeply intertwined with ethnic divisions, primarily between the Dinka (Kiir’s ethnic group) and the Nuer (Machar’s ethnic group). While the conflict isn’t solely ethnic, these divisions are exploited by political leaders to mobilize support and justify violence.

* Land Disputes: Competition over land and resources remains a major driver of conflict at the local level.

* Cattle Raiding: A customary practice, cattle raiding has become increasingly militarized and is frequently enough linked to broader political agendas.

* Communal Violence: Recurring clashes between different ethnic groups contribute to a climate of insecurity and undermine efforts to build national unity.

* Displacement & Humanitarian Crisis: The ongoing violence has resulted in widespread displacement and a severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of South Sudanese relying on aid for survival. This creates further instability and resentment.

Impact of Delayed security Sector Reform

A critical component of the R-ARCSS is the reform of the security sector, including the integration of rival armed forces into a unified national army. However, this process has been significantly delayed due to disagreements over command structures, vetting procedures, and the allocation of resources.

* Lack of Trust: The absence of a unified army perpetuates a climate of distrust and increases the risk of clashes between different factions.

* Proliferation of Arms: The continued availability of weapons fuels violence and undermines efforts to disarm civilians.

* Absence of Accountability: Impunity for past human rights abuses remains a major obstacle to reconciliation and justice.

* Formation of Militias: The delay in security sector reform has led to the proliferation of local militias, further complicating the security landscape.

The Humanitarian Situation: A Worsening Crisis

The escalating political tensions are exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

* Food Insecurity: Millions of south Sudanese are facing acute food insecurity, with many on the brink of famine.

* Displacement: The number of internally displaced persons (idps) and refugees continues to rise, placing a strain on already limited resources.

* Access Constraints: Humanitarian organizations face meaningful challenges in accessing vulnerable populations due to insecurity and bureaucratic obstacles.

* Healthcare Crisis: The healthcare system is severely underfunded and lacks the capacity to meet the needs of the population. Disease outbreaks, such as cholera and measles, are common.

Regional and International Response

The international community has condemned the escalating tensions in South Sudan and called for a peaceful resolution to the crisis. However, the effectiveness of these efforts is limited by a lack of political will and a fragmented approach.

* IGAD Mediation: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is leading mediation efforts,but its influence is constrained by the conflicting interests of regional actors.

* UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS): UNMISS is mandated to protect civilians and monitor human rights, but its resources are stretched thin and