At their summit starting today, the EU heads of state and government want to decide on aid to Ukraine worth 50 billion euros for the next four years. In December, the decision failed due to the veto of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. This is exactly what is threatening today. Council President Charles Michel warns that otherwise he sees the credibility of the EU at risk. This decision would put aid to Ukraine on a long-term basis.
Why is Orban going wrong?
In an interview with the French magazine “Le Point” on Tuesday, he renewed his concerns about the billions in aid. “We don’t want an escalation” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, said the right-wing populist. He accuses the other member states of “blackmail” because “they want to force us to agree.”
How do the other 26 member states react?
For their part, they accuse Orban of “blackmail” because during the December summit he demanded the release of 20 billion euros that the EU had frozen in the dispute over violations of the rule of law in Hungary.
Could this mean more money for Hungarians?
No, say the other countries. The 20 billion euros are linked to clear conditions, such as reforms in asylum policy and the rights of sexual minorities. In addition, money had not been drawn at the EU summit in December. The EU Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen had shortly before released ten billion euros for Hungary and justified this with a judicial reform in the country. However, this did not persuade Orban to give in on aid to Ukraine.
Is Orban willing to compromise without money?
At least that’s what he claims. The main condition he makes is to unanimously approve the disbursement of Ukraine funds every year. The 26 others are not prepared to do this, as this would give him a permanent veto. Orban is not only criticized for his blockade stance, he is the only one in the EU who also maintains relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the fall, Orban was even photographed shaking hands with Putin.
Does the EU have no leverage against Hungary?
Theoretically yes. Since 2018, the European Parliament has been pushing for Hungary to be deprived of its voting rights in the Council of Member States. This requires consensus from the other 26. Even after Orban’s supporters in Poland were voted out, some member states remain cautious, especially Slovakia. A withdrawal of voting rights would be tantamount to disempowering a country at EU level and would be a precedent. If Orban really lets the summit collapse, the mood could change, according to Brussels.
Couldn’t the other 26 EU member states decide on aid to Ukraine without Hungary?
Not if money is to flow from the EU budget; this requires unanimity. According to diplomats, a plan B from the 26 would be possible: further aid on a loan basis; last year, 18 billion euros flowed to Kiev. There are two main things that speak against this: It would take longer because the Bundestag and other parliaments would have to agree. And Orban would have prevailed with his blockade.
And if each EU country individually gives more money to Ukraine?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is pushing for this, in addition to joint EU aid. He argues that Germany is by far contributing the most to Ukraine in Europe this year, with 7.4 billion euros. Other countries such as France, Spain and Italy are far behind, it is said in Berlin.
