Europe has weathered the post-conflict energy crisis in Ukraine, but businesses and households have begun to think about how to “survive” through the conflict. winter next.
Warm climate, plus government support, stockpiles full gas and the import of energy from other regions has helped Europe reduce the economic damage caused by the conflict in Ukraine.
Germany, which is heavily dependent on natural gas imports from Russia, has provided massive subsidies to consumers, struggling to fill fuel stockpiles and find new energy sources as Moscow stop exporting.
To increase supplies during the winter, Germany and neighboring EU countries have purchased liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the US at a more expensive price than Russian gas, which is transported through pipelines.
According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), LNG imports in Europe have increased by 60% in 2022 from a year ago. As a result, the worst-case scenario for Winter 2022/2023 did not happen.
Europe’s gas reserves are now 72% full (at one point 83%), more than double the same period in 2022.
Thanks to warmer than usual temperatures this winter, European consumers must turn on Heaters later, consumes less energy, so the reserve is still quite high.
[Chi phí nhập khẩu khí đốt của Đức tăng vọt trong năm 2022]
According to the Bruegel advisory group in Brussels (Belgium), natural gas demand has fallen by 12% in 2022 compared to the 2019-2021 average. In addition, one reason for the increased supply is the resumption of some French nuclear reactors.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy prices in Europe recorded record highs – surpassing 300 euros/MWh of electricity in August, before suddenly falling as governments quickly increased their reserves. .
The contract to buy energy futures is currently at 55 euros, which is still double what it was before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, the reduction has yet to have an impact on household energy bills as suppliers bought in bulk months earlier, leaving consumers still struggling to pay for inflation. dizzy increase.
Some analysts predict it will be years before prices return to normal.
“People are already starting to worry about the winter of 2023/2024,” said Fabian Skarboe Ronningen, market analyst at Rystad Energy.
According to him, Europe will remain highly reliant on LNG in 2023 as this is the first year to see very low imports from Russia throughout the year. And if Asian demand recovers, the “LNG competition between Europe and Asia will be even tougher, possibly pushing prices higher than they are today.”
Bich Lien (VNA/Vietnam+)