2023-11-25 15:22:57
At a time when the executive continues to advocate its new optimistic budgetary plan for 2024, current economic indicators, like those projected by specialists for the future, seem to contrast well with the projected government salvation.
Let’s say it straight away, the difficult economic situation is not unique to France. It remains the same for almost all countries in the euro zone, and even beyond. Europe has clearly not yet finished suffering the consequences of the energy crisis. Already seriously affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine has further upset a European economy hit hard by a significant slowdown in its activity. An activity whose relaunch remains just as uncertain in view of the other upheavals shaking the world, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This acts indirectly on the energy market via the position of Iran, one of the major oil producers, but also that of Saudi Arabia which has already reduced its production. Not to mention Russia’s clear-cut position on this subject.
All of this has given rise to a rather worrying situation for European countries which are struggling to reduce their dependence on these imported energies. An observation which even places Germany, the continent’s largest economy, in a rather worrying area with a fall of 0.1% in its gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2023, according to official figures from the Institute of Destatis statistics, published in The Tribune.
ING’s warning
Germany is suffering from the blatant decline recorded in its important manufacturing sector. According to the International Monetary Fund, it will be the only G7 country in recession this year and could see its GDP decline by 0.5%, notes again. The Tribune. In France, economic growth is not at its best either, at a time when specialists are predicting a slower slowdown than desired. “ In November, all leading indicators on the economy deteriorate »points out economist Marc Touati, president of the ACEDFI firm and columnist for Capital. For him, “the economic recession tends to set in”while the unemployment rate is expected to rise further, he warns in Capital.
What worries France the most is the deterioration from which the construction sector is struggling to recover. A situation which is currently worsening the job market “fallen to its level of spring 2021”according to Capitalwhich announces a more complicated condition for the next quarters by repeating a warning from the Internationale Nederlanden Groep which “ expects only average growth of 0.6% (much lower than the government’s 1.4% forecast) for French GDP next year “. Data which, in short, does not encourage the expected trend towards disinflation and whose implementation of the process risks taking longer than expected.
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