Europe’s population is projected to decline overall by 2100, but several countries are expected to buck the trend and see significant growth, according to new demographic forecasts released by Eurostat and the United Nations Population Division. The projections, based on current fertility rates, life expectancy, and migration patterns, indicate that while the continent’s total population will fall from approximately 447 million in 2023 to around 416 million by 2100, certain nations will experience notable increases due to sustained immigration and higher birth rates. Luxembourg is forecast to lead in relative growth, with its population expected to rise by over 80% by 2100, driven largely by net international migration and a relatively young resident population. Sweden, Norway, and Switzerland are also projected to see substantial increases, each growing by between 30% and 50% over the same period, primarily due to continued inflows of migrants from outside the European Union and higher fertility rates among foreign-born residents. In absolute terms, the United Kingdom — though no longer an EU member — is expected to add the largest number of people, with its population rising from about 67 million to nearly 80 million by 2100, assuming current migration and birth trends persist. France and Germany are projected to see modest growth as well, though Germany’s increase is highly dependent on maintaining current levels of net migration, which has averaged over 300,000 annually in recent years. Conversely, Eastern and Southern European countries face the steepest declines. Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania are each projected to lose more than 30% of their populations by 2100, with some forecasts suggesting losses exceeding 40% in Latvia and Lithuania due to persistently low fertility rates, high emigration, and aging populations. Italy, Greece, and Portugal are also expected to see significant contractions, with Italy’s population potentially falling below 40 million by the end of the century if current trends continue. The divergence highlights a growing demographic split across the continent, where northwestern Europe benefits from migration-driven growth while southeastern and northeastern regions grapple with depopulation pressures. These trends have implications for labor markets, pension systems, and regional economic competitiveness, prompting policy discussions in affected countries about incentivizing childbirth, integrating migrants, and addressing brain drain. Officials at the European Commission have acknowledged the challenge but have not announced new coordinated measures to address regional imbalances. National statistics bureaus in the affected countries continue to monitor the data, with updated projections expected in late 2025. No supranational funding mechanism specifically targeting demographic decline has been activated as of the latest available reports.
