Putting this allusion under the recent changes in the international situation made me feel even more deeply: the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated, and the Liberal Democratic Party took the opportunity to gain “sympathy points” and won the election; G7 (G7) and G20 (two) Group of 10) meetings were held one after another, exposing international intrigue; Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi shuttled through ASEAN countries, intending to consolidate friendly relations, but each country has its own calculations; Sino-US relations are still tense, but high-level contacts have recently increased (Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken met, and high-level military leaders of the two countries also held meetings); Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy has both internal problems and international economic war factors… This fully reflects today’s headline: “Everyone in front of me is saying a lot, but behind everyone wants to dig a grave. “But the point of this article is not to lament the ugliness of human nature and politics and the dilemma of the situation, but to think about where is the pain of China’s diplomacy? How can China be more proactive in diplomacy?
(1) Fake drama might as well do it for real
──Abe was assassinated. China expressed condolences and appreciated his contributions to promoting the improvement and development of bilateral relations during his lifetime. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang also sent messages of condolences. But it can be seen from the past that China does not like Abe, and even hates it. In recent years, the West’s “Indo-Pacific concept” against China has been strongly promoted by Abe; he visited the Yasukuni Shrine as prime minister, and after leaving office, he publicly supported Taiwan…
But China still expresses condolences to him. The main purpose is to hope and facilitate his successor, current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, to get rid of the hard line that still has influence after Abe’s resignation, and turn to a moderate and pragmatic China policy. After Kishida came to power, he did revisit Abe’s policy in his words and deeds (for example, indirectly echoing China’s “need to respect the accumulated efforts of each country under a specific historical background,” which is different from the US attack). China is convinced that Japan has not yet escaped the control of the United States, but does not want to push Kishida further toward the United States, so it will not attack Abe and make Sino-Japanese relations even more tense.
──Wang Yi recently visited many ASEAN countries, especially the Philippines and Thailand, and met with the Vietnamese foreign minister, hoping to tighten relations. He can be regarded as the most difficult Chinese foreign minister after Zhou Enlai and Qian Qichen. Zhou and Qian took on enormous diplomatic pressure after the founding of the People’s Republic of China and after the “June 4th”, respectively, while Wang Yi took heavy responsibility when the United States and Europe comprehensively contained and suppressed China.
More importantly, the US’s deployment of returning to Asia is becoming more and more obvious and effective, and the relationship between China and ASEAN countries (including the long-term friendly Cambodia) may be shaken or already shaken. China knows that these countries are trying to make China cheap, but it still has to smile and endure “vulnerable bullying”. For example, Vietnam is exploiting oil fields in the South China Sea and awarding “sovereignty contracts” to Western companies. China can only express its opposition. , the purpose is to slow down their inclination towards the United States.
──As for the relationship between China and the US and Europe, there is a reasonable “distinction” between the real and the fake. China knows that the previous strategy of “splitting the United States and Europe with economic interests” cannot be successful, and now it recognizes that the close alliance between the United States and the United Kingdom is the main hostile force. The recent contacts between China and the US (Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and US Defense Secretary Austin, and the CPC Central Military Commission Joint Staff Chief Li Zuocheng and the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Milley) are particularly important. Most of them are “finding the bottom line and revealing the bottom line (showing the bottom line)”. It can be seen that in addition to maintaining tension, it is the real chapter to control friction and reduce the probability of loss of control.
(2) China must consider three major issues
──Why does China spread huge economic incentives and interests, and most of the “friendly countries” are closer to China economically, but they are still closer to the West in the fields of politics, diplomacy, military and ideology? This is particularly evident in ASEAN countries. As China reduces its interests, African countries shrink the Belt and Road Initiative, and their relations with China are also shaken. There are not many countries that have truly become “China allies”, let alone “blood alliances”! Even Russia is just using China as everyone sees it.
──Although it is the international norm to rely on interests to maintain relations, why does the United States often have a small profit, while China has to pay such a price that is not cost-effective? There is a saying in foreign countries: America is nothing to pay, while China is pay for nothing. How should China calculate its “diplomatic balance sheet”? So as not to pay no benefit to the outside world, but to be riddled with diseases internally.
──China is well aware that many countries have many conflicts with the United States. For example, the European Union will only appear when the interests of the United States and Europe collide; Japan also hates the United States for transferring the crisis to the country; anti-American sentiment in South Korea is also very high. I believe that the sincerity of China’s diplomacy and mutual benefit is definitely stronger than that of the United States, but why are those countries still willing to approach the United States but keep a distance from China?
(3) The West makes clever use of modern elements
To answer the above questions, in addition to the traditional strength of the United States and its long-term dominance, the following reasons are more important.
──The Western camp can gather more countries, because in addition to economic interests, they also have relatively close intangible interests (let’s call them “common ideas”), grasp the governance psychology and elements of modern society, and the actual effect is to strengthen their own domination. What are these “common ideas”? Not anti-China, but anti-communism – communism that the people of many countries have renounced from historical experience.
Paradoxically, the essence of China today is clearly neither communism nor socialism. Foreign countries describe it as state monopoly capitalism, but it still uses communism and socialism to maintain its political power. This has been nailed by foreign countries as the opposite of the mainstream consciousness of “anti-communism” in the world.
──China believes that the Western claims of democracy, freedom, human rights, and the rule of law are false. I do not deny this statement, some Western countries also use these elements to consolidate the interests of the powerful (including politicians and big business groups). But the point is that democracy, freedom, human rights, and the rule of law are indeed universal demands of modern times (including Hong Kong). Western countries know how to use and package these elements. Even if there are hypocrisy in them, they also comply with these demands to varying degrees. This is the self-confidence of the Western system, which has actually strengthened governance by retreating into progress.
China’s approach is to “frankly” accuse “Western democracy is fake”. The objective effect is to oppose the mainstream consciousness of the world’s people. Foreigners even think that “Chinese-style democracy” has many feudal overtones. Originally, it was understandable for China to strengthen its modernization capabilities, but it was caught by the West, referring to “using modernization methods to strengthen feudal rule”, and it was also attacked by foreign countries.
─ Therefore, China must understand that in order to win the diplomatic initiative, it cannot rely solely on giving benefits to foreign governments, but must also win the hearts of foreign people, so as to use the hearts of foreign citizens to promote the friendship of foreign governments towards China. Otherwise, foreign countries will continue to “say their deep gratitude to everyone in front of them”, but the reality is that “everyone wants to dig graves behind their backs”, and China will be even more passive at that time.
The author is a current affairs commentator
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