A poll of analysts conducted by Archyde.com showed that Egypt’s headline inflation rate likely accelerated in November, After the devaluation of the currency in October and continued restrictions on imports led to renewed upward pressure on prices.
The average forecast of 14 analysts showed that annual inflation reached 18.75 percent over the past month, up from 16.2 percent in October and the highest level since December 2017.
Jaap Meyer, Head of Research at Arqaam Capital, attributed the rapid increase in prices to “high import bills”.
The central bank imposed restrictions on imports in February, before the Ukraine crisis, and has devalued the currency since March.
On October 27, the bank devalued the Egyptian pound by 14.5%, and it has been allowed to decline gradually since then.
“The currency has moved 25% from where it was a year ago, and that would add 2.5-5 percentage points in any country, and the rise has reached 10 percentage points,” said Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital.
Robertson added, “So it is likely that the foreign exchange rate will be responsible for a third (the rise in prices) than a year ago, and oil may represent a fifth and world wheat prices no less than a tenth, and two-thirds of the rise can easily be attributed to the Egyptian pound, oil and food until the end of October.” 2022″.
Analysts polled had expected core inflation to jump to 21.6% from 19% in October.
Rising inflation would put pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates at its next meeting on December 22nd.
Tomorrow, Thursday, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics is scheduled to release inflation data for November.