A new variant of COVID-19 could upset the situation in Greater Montreal in the coming months, according to experts from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ) and Laval University.
INSPQ experts have studied several scenarios to predict the evolution of the pandemic.
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Fall will be decisive, since the season is conducive to gatherings.
A majority of Quebecers have hybrid immunity; they were vaccinated and they caught COVID-19.
The evolution of the situation will depend on the maintenance of this type of immunity.
“For the future, the magnitude of the next waves will depend, in part, on maintaining this shield against new variants,” explained the director of the Research Group in Mathematical Modeling and Health Economics Related to Infectious Diseases at the Institute. Laval University, Marc Brisson, in a press release.
“However, it is currently impossible to predict when a new variant, other than BA.4 or BA.5, could arrive in Quebec and what its characteristics would be,” he added.
According to the INSPQ, the virus continues to mutate and a new variant could escape hybrid immunity.
“Even if the new variants are less severe, the large number of cases could cause significant disruption in society and pressure on the health system, said the scientific director, Direction of biological risks at the National Institute of Public Health. from Quebec, Patricia Hudson.
It will therefore be important to monitor the level of protection of Quebecers and to plan contingency plans, in the event of the arrival of a new variant that escapes hybrid immunity.