Eduardo Eurnekian rose from his chair in the middle of a long head table. Lunch was already winding down. He took the microphone and looked at Martín Guzmán. “You give us confidence. We appreciate it. We are fully supportive.” he claimed. “Hopefully we can toast and say that this year we are better than last,” estimated one of the most important businessmen in the country, while 175 diners from the red circle listened to him surprised by the gesture.
The president and founder of Corporación América raised the glass. Guzmán, flanked by Alejandro Bulgheroni (owner of the PAE oil company) and the ambassador to Brazil, Daniel Scioli, only wet his lips – he does not drink alcohol – to thank the businessman for his support and left the main hall of the Hotel Alvear in the middle of a whirlpool of advisers and businessmen.
Before the lunch of the Inter-American Council of Commerce and Production (CICyP) began, an armor was already in the air to cover the figure of the Minister of Economy. “You have to take care of Guzmán”, said one of the organizers. The economist became a “rational” and -above all- “predictable” interlocutor for the business community so that the country does not skid on the way to 2023.
His figure grew vertiginously in volume thanks to the permanent attacks of the slopes of Cristina Kirchner. In fact, the ghost of the vice president in Chaco walked the corridors of the hotel. “What are you going to say?” They wondered amid the escalation of tension between her and President Alberto Fernández.
The president of the CICyP, Daniel Funes de Rioja, was astute. In his presentation, he recalled the cold – due to the frost outdoors that noon – the minister’s presentation at the 2021 meeting in the midst of the pandemic, and said that the current one “was in a warmer environment.” The also president of the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) and of Copal, said: “We will accompany the road.”
Escorted by the Secretary of the Treasury, Raúl Rigo, and the Secretary of Tax Policy, Roberto Arias, Guzmán was also skilful. He spoke of ordering the accounts, issuing less pesos and debt and accumulating reserves – these are the criteria agreed with the IMF – and the role of the State, which, unlike past presentations in which that role was nebulous, now has priority for investment in infrastructure, education and technology. He again promised a review of the stocks, a programmatic vision –medium term– and spoke of a collective task –consensus–. In the slides from his presentation even the “clear rules” appeared. He did not mention or ask about the so-called “unexpected income” tax.
That narrative approved by the business community closed with the intersection that the minister found to establish a clear articulation with the private sector: energy. Bulgheroni was his talk for most of the meal, which included a class-struggle menu: the overpriced beef tenderloin paired with polenta (hidden in a Palermo qualification of “creamy corn”). “It was great; The problem is that they don’t let him do it.” granted to THE NATION Bulgheroni in one of the corridors of the Alvear, while writing down Scioli’s number on his cell phone. Another who fluttered around Guzmán was Hugo Eurnekian, president of the Compañía General de Combustibles (CGC). Both the people from CGC and PAE already spent weeks ago at the Economy Ministry, while they were hustling the minister, to announce investments.
To frame the “historic” opportunity that the minister highlighted in the world of energy, the people of Techint recalled that Paolo Rocca, as soon as the invasion of Ukraine began, saw the opportunity. “Germany is burning coal,” he was reported to have said by Russia’s gas dependency. In terms of grocers, with an investment in the sector of US$30,000 million, exports of US$17,000 million per year could be generated. There is also interest in the infrastructure for that. It doesn’t matter if the gas pipeline is called Néstor Kirchner. It is not for nothing that Guzmán has been promising to loosen the trap in that sector.
However, the table talk between energy businessmen and laboratories –the bets say that a prominent figure could emerge from the latter category at the next industrial conference– ruled that Guzmán lacked self-criticism. “It’s very solid technically, but without political support you can’t do anything,” said one of the diners. This topic was not among the questions chosen by Funes de Rioja to Guzmán after his presentation. Neither do the rate hikes that will be discussed next week.
Regarding inflation, the main business concern, he focused on the noise caused by the war (which does not affect everyone; in April, the rise in prices in Uruguay was 0.49%) and on expectations. He said that it is not enough just to build a credible program. He stated that it is necessary for the market to believe that it will continue to be implemented. Translation: difficult if all the time you say that someone else will sit on your chair.
“Since March 2020 they have been going [a Guzmán]. He is not the problem,” said a senior banker. “Guzman is capable. He understands things,” said Cristiano Rattazzi, who also rescued Matías Kulfas. “A country with this inflation is not sustainable”, added the businessman, who remarked that the noise that exists in the Government also has it Together for Change: “Look at the quilombo they are.” To support Guzmán he bailed out the Uruguayan government. “They are rational,” he said, citing not Luis Lacalle Pou but Pepe Mugica.
“Today it gives predictability, whether you like it or not what it does”, said Juan Nápoli, president of the Banco de Valores about Guzmán. “In this context, you cannot change the minister,” said the man who doubts that the agreement with the IMF can be fulfilled.
A businessman paraphrased an industrialist to mention another current problem: “In 2020 I lost 10 million; in 2021, I won them. In 2022 I could win, but if I have a product”, affirmed about the bottlenecks today in imports.
For this reason, despite the support for Guzmán, businessmen always pay for their insurance coverage. The partners of the Argentine Business Association (AEA), including Rocca and Héctor Magnetto, listened yesterday for two and a half hours what Carlos Melconian believes must be done from 2023: take shock measures, but not in months or weeks. In days. ß