Chinese leaders are increasingly concerned that increased Western military support for Ukraine will severely weaken Russia, a key partner for Beijing in its fierce competition with the United States and its allies.
Ukrainian staunch resistance on the battlefield has prompted Beijing to reconsider, preferring to push for a ceasefire to prevent further Russian setbacks — or even larger defeats — according to people close to Chinese policymakers.
This reconsideration has pushed China to further expand its economic ties with Russia. China wants to increase imports of Russian oil, gas and agricultural products, strengthen joint energy partnerships in the Arctic, and increase Chinese investment in Russian railways and ports.
China has so far been restrained in providing military support to Russia, and it is unclear how that position will change. Underscoring the potential for change, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken highlighted the potential for change over the weekend, noting that the U.S. government had received information that China was considering providing lethal weapons support to Russia.
Some diplomatic strategists in Beijing have raised the question of whether China should consider providing military support to Russia for defensive purposes – a scenario they say could significantly increase the cost of the conflict. That, in turn, could give China some leverage in proposing a solution to end the conflict.
But such a move would also fuel Western resentment against Mr. Xi. It could not be determined whether the above ideas enjoy support among China’s top leadership.
China’s foreign ministry on Monday dismissed the U.S. accusation. Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a news conference: “It is the US, not China, that continuously supplies weapons to the battlefield.” Even coercion and pressure.”
“I think China understands the risks if it starts providing this type of support to Russia,” Blinken said in Turkey on Monday.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday announced an additional $500 million in aid to Ukraine during a surprise visit to Kiev. It underscores the urgency with which China seeks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which has hardened ties between the United States and its European allies and threatened to irrevocably cement the rift between China and the West.
A weakening of Russian power gives China the upper hand in bilateral relations, potentially yielding more favorable deals for China, including energy deals. Still, people close to Chinese policymakers say President Xi Jinping has no intention of watching Russia and Vladimir Putin decimated by war.
To that end, China is eager to play a more active role in efforts to end the conflict. China will unveil details of a Chinese peace initiative on Feb. 24, the same day Russia invaded Ukraine, Wang Yi, director of the Office of the Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, told the Munich Security Conference this past weekend. anniversary day. Wang Yi, who is due to arrive in Moscow on Monday, is likely to meet with Putin to discuss China’s views on resolving the Ukraine crisis.
Both the United States and China are avoiding steps that could escalate the conflict. China denies supporting Russia’s war effort and says Chinese companies conduct normal trade with Russia. Biden has long been concerned that providing Ukraine with long-range weapons that could reach Russia would increase the risk of direct U.S.-Russia confrontation.
“If China provides military support, of course it will be an important factor in changing the situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” John. said Sergey Radchenko, a professor of international relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “This may also be part of Wang Yi’s ‘peace plan’, which calls for a ceasefire along the current territorial control line between Russia and Ukraine.”
Radchenko also said: “The message here (to the West) is that if we miss the opportunity to calm things down now, China’s potential support for Russia will make the war more expensive later, and it may have dire consequences for Ukraine and regional stability. s consequence.”
China has provided vital economic and diplomatic support to Moscow since Russia launched its war on Ukraine, buying Russian energy and accusing the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization of To provoke Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian customs records show that Chinese state-owned defense companies have also been sending navigation equipment, jamming technology and fighter jet parts to sanctioned Russian state-owned companies, The Wall Street Journal reported this month.
Beijing’s new push for a truce signals a new shift in Xi Jinping’s view of China’s role in the Russo-Ukraine war. He has sought to play a more prominent role after seeking to cast China as a neutral party in the conflict while rejecting Western calls for China to condemn the Russian aggression.
Both China and Russia believe that the current international order favors developed countries, and efforts to reshape the international order are the common goal of the two countries. In recent months, Xi Jinping has been careful not to overtly help Russia; doing so would provoke a collective boycott in the Western world. But Beijing has continued to deepen Sino-Russian cooperation amid heightened Sino-U.S. tensions.
The push for China to play a more active role in trying to defuse the crisis has gained prominence in Beijing recently, as Russia remains mired in the quagmire despite deploying almost all of its ground troops to Ukraine.
A January policy report by the Rand Corp. titled “How to Avoid a Long War” has drawn the attention of many Chinese foreign policy authorities, according to people close to Chinese policymakers. The report noted that the longer the war in Ukraine drags on, the greater the risk of escalation, which could bring Russia into direct conflict with NATO. The RAND Corporation is an influential Washington think tank.
Some Chinese policy advisers believe that view could create an opportunity for China to intervene and try to negotiate peace.
Western leaders are skeptical that China can be a credible mediator because of its close relationship with Russia. In Munich, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg cast doubt on China’s sincerity. “China has never condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said. “China has never called this an illegal war.”
Some Western officials hope Xi can use China’s economic support as leverage to bring Putin to the negotiating table. So far, Xi has shown little sign of willingness to pressure Putin, although he recently told other world leaders that he opposes the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, where Putin has previously threatened to use them.
Some analysts in the United States and elsewhere also wonder whether China’s peacemaking program and warnings against Russia’s use of nuclear weapons are an attempt to conceal Beijing’s implicit support for Russia.
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, said the Chinese would not sit back and let the Russians lose outright, and China’s peacemaking initiative was a step toward that goal. Sun Yun said she doubted China would be able to come up with any substantive settlement beyond calling for peace and dialogue.