2023-10-18 19:49:00
“The short-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable with somewhat weaker growth,” details the Federal Reserve survey carried out over the past two months.
The prospects for a soft landing for the American economy seem to be materializing, with a slightly less tight job market, except for the most qualified employees, according to a survey published Wednesday by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
“The short-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable with somewhat weaker growth,” details the Fed in its “Beige Book”, a survey carried out over the last two months among its 12 regions of the Federal Reserve system.
Six of these regions are experiencing stable or slightly declining activity, while the other half is seeing its activity increase slightly.
This report, which generally appears two weeks before the next monetary meeting, covers a period of six weeks before October 6.
“Consumer spending was mixed, particularly for retail sales and automobiles, due to a difference between prices and available supply,” the Fed said.
On the other hand, services are doing better, in particular “tourist activity (which) has continued to improve” but is also starting to show signs of weakness. “Some regions reported a slight slowdown in travel spending.”
Furthermore, high interest rates, following the increase made by the Fed over the last 19 months, make credit more expensive, which has an impact on the activity of banks, where loan requests are in slight decline. .
On the labor market side, the existing tension seems to be disappearing little by little, between employers who “no longer feel in a hurry to recruit” and an increase in the number of candidates per job offer.
As for inflation, sales prices are growing less quickly than producer prices, which makes it more difficult for companies to maintain their margins.
Overall, prices are expected to rise over the coming quarters but at a slower pace than that observed so far.
Although the strikes observed in the automobile manufacturing sector, particularly in the north of the country, have not had an effect on the economy of the regions concerned, they are, however, beginning to be taken into account in the regional outlook. of Chicago and Cleveland, also notes the Beige Book.
Inflation rose in September to 3.7% over one year, stable compared to the previous month, and 0.4% over one month, according to the CPI index, on which pensions are indexed.
The next Fed meeting will be held on October 31 and November 1. Its overnight rates are currently in the range of 5.25-5.50%.
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