World won’t run out of oil despite Russia’s isolation, IEA says
The world should not run out of oil in the short term despite Russia’s growing isolation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated on Thursday.
“The steady increase in production elsewhere [qu’en Russie]with slowing demand growth, particularly in China, should fend off any acute short-term supply shortfalls”says the agency in its monthly oil report.
Despite the current uncertainties, she also notes that volatility remains, of course, important on the market, but that prices are moving in a tighter and lower range of 10 dollars a barrel above 100 dollars.
The IEA predicts an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in demand this year, to reach 99.4 mb/d in total. But the pace of growth is expected to slow down over the course of the year, with slowing global growth, rising prices at the pump and the return of severe lockdowns in China.
However, the agency warns for the summer, with the season of major car travel in North America and the resumption of air traffic. If refiners can’t keep up, it could have an impact on consumers.
On the supply side, the agency notes Russia’s growing isolation after its invasion of Ukraine, as the West considers an embargo and major brokerages turn away from Russian oil. But the IEA is counting on the increase in volumes from the United States and Middle Eastern countries to compensate for these losses.