2024-03-26 11:23:16
Have investors decided to sit on their hands until Friday’s publication of a flagship price index in the United States? It’s possible. It is certain in any case that the agenda, sparse since Monday, does not offer the opportunity to take risks and observers prefer to stay on the sidelines after the records recorded on the markets last week.
At mid-session this Tuesday, the Cac 40 gained 0.15% to 8,163.9 points in a trading volume of 610 million euros. New York index futures gained 0.3% to 0.5%.
Friday’s publication of PCE inflation in personal consumption expenditures for the month of February has the power to wake the stock markets from sluggishness. But we will have to wait until next week to see the reaction of investors since Friday will be a non-working day on the major European and American markets. Observers hope that the data will confirm the slowdown in inflation which would allow the American Federal Reserve to lower its interest rates in June, as is widely anticipated. Until then, the market will take note of February data on durable goods orders in the United States at 1:30 p.m. On Thursday, the third estimate of American GDP for the last months of 2023 will be in the spotlight.
JPMorgan sees the S&P 500 losing 1,000 points by the end of the year
Beyond macroeconomics, the next big catalyst will be the first quarter corporate earnings season. And concerns are emerging about the disconnect between profitability expectations and stock prices. Strategists at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, among the most pessimistic among Wall Street’s big banks, were the latest to warn that it will be difficult to justify high valuations in the absence of accelerating growth. benefits. In the United States, the quarterly accounts will be launched, as usual, by the banks in two weeks.
A sign of the overheating of the stock market, the S&P 500 ended last week 14% above its 200-day moving average. The combination of positive American economic data, expectations on Fed rates and the enthusiasm linked to artificial intelligence have enabled Wall Street’s flagship index to already gain almost 10% this year, to more than 5,200 points. . JPMorgan forecasts that the S&P 500 will end the year at 4,200 points, a drop of around 20%, while Morgan Stanley expects 4,500 points.
Goldman Sachs strategists are less strict and stick to their forecast of 5,200 points at the end of the year, but they envisage a scenario in which tech mega-caps will take the index up to 6,000. “ Although optimism on AI appears high, long-term growth forecasts and valuations for top TMT stocks (technology, media and telecoms, editor’s note) are still far from being bubbles », According to the team led by David Kostin.
Atos widens its annual losses
In corporate news, Atos falls 7% after posting a net loss of 3.44 billion euros in 2023, compared to around 1 billion the previous year. In financial difficulty, the digital services group announced that it had entered into an amicable conciliation procedure with its financial creditors with a view to renegotiation of its debt.
Rubis acquires 6.8%, while businessman Vincent Bolloré has crossed the threshold of 5% of the capital of the petroleum products distribution and storage group.
In the red, Carrefour lost 2.4%. The mass distribution group has reached an agreement to repurchase 3.5% of its capital from one of its historic shareholders as part of its share buyback plan.
As for analysts, BNP Paribas was raised by Goldman Sachs from “neutral” to “buy” and gained 2%. This is the strongest progression in the Cac 40.
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