To analyse. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the West has done everything possible to try to asphyxiate all sectors of the Russian economy. All ? One is resisting the onslaught of European sanctions: fossil fuels. Oil, gas and coal are as vital to the Russian economy as they are to continental European countries. In the arsenal of financial sanctions, it was necessary to preserve two Russian banks – including that affiliated with the gas giant Gazprom – which continue to be able to use the international Swift network. In the days following the Russian attack, Europeans continued to buy 700 million euros a day worth of Russian energy products, according to the Bloomberg agency.
“No one can be deluded anymore”abstract Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (OUCH), “Russia uses gas as a political and economic weapon”. Not all European countries are dependent in the same way: France imports only 20% of its gas from Russia, Germany 55%, and several countries in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Hungary or the Czech Republic , 100% . But the slightest jolt in Russian gas deliveries sends prices skyrocketing for everyone: they doubled the day after the offensive.
Destabilizing European economies
It is very difficult for Europeans to free themselves from this gas tutelage in the short term: world production cannot be extended, and it is not possible to replace Russia in the same volumes with other suppliers. This dependence is used by Vladimir Putin to destabilize European economies. As soon as the first sanctions were triggered, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tweeted : “Welcome to the new world where Europeans will pay 2,000 euros for 1,000 cubic meters of gas” – far higher than that usually paid by Europeans.
This increase will have massive consequences in Europe. First for individuals heated by gas and the industries that use it. Worse still, it will push up electricity prices, often driven by the price of gas, which is widely used to run power plants. The more expensive the gas, the more the price of electricity will increase. Which European leader will be prepared to accept a three or fourfold increase in electricity prices out of solidarity with Ukraine? Or a shutdown of certain factories that would cease to be profitable with such a high energy price?
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