The first version of the soybean dollar generated a scenario of pax cambiaria in September, due to the effect of the program on the alternative dollarsand the Central Bank (BCRA) took advantage of this situation to accelerate the crawling-peg (rhythm of daily microdevaluations of the official dollar), taking it above inflation in an attempt to reduce the exchange rate gap.
But soybean dollar 2 it does not come under exact circumstances and December, as was said, is a particular month. In this context, these elements are going to play to mark the dynamics ofthe blue and the officeraccording to the market: the payment of aguinaldothe monetary policy rate and inflation, the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the incentive program for soybean exporters.
Blue dollar and Christmas bonus: demand for pesos with boomerang effect
The demand for pesos is one of the seasonal components of December. “We are at a time when the need for local currency is higher due to the Christmas bonuses and year-end bonuses”, describes Sebastián Menescaldi, economist and director of EcoGo.
As happens every year, in December a slight drop in the blue can be consolidated at the beginning of the month, because companies part with dollars to have liquidity in pesosbut the economist Federico Glustein warns that, “once the payment of the end-of-year obligations is completed, it usually begins to accelerate the dollar demand due to tourism and dollarization of assets”, which could put pressure on the blue to rise.
On the other hand, undoubtedly who can buy dollar savings (although they are fewer and fewer) will also go with part of the aguinaldo to obtain their quota of US$200 allowed, which would also generate upward pressure for the official exchange rate due to an increase in demand.
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Albornoz also mentions that an element to observe is the dynamics that makes it difficult for alternative dollars to access the official market for importers who have been restricted since the implementation of the new Import System (SIRA).
Rate policy: is it enough to contain the price?
In response to those dollar outlet points, the BCRA has applied a quite aggressive rate policy. “Obviously, we have an essential variable in our favour, which is the bowl of 75%, with a TEA of 107%”, says Glustein in this regard. But he warns that debt tenders are getting more complicated and many investors are looking to convert to dollars instead of going to peso instruments.
“The difficulty in placing debt and the fall in bonds makes the BCRA have to issue more pesos, which will surely influence the prices of the blue”, predicts Glustein. Thus, the rate as a dam for parallel markets may not be as effective.
And here appears the variable of the inflation also. The fact that the level of price evolution is lowered is decisive for the rate policy to be efficient because the monthly yield must be positive to convince the investor. For now, it is at 6.25% per month, so they are almost tied, and if the November price data is below 6% as expected, the relationship will improve.
Yet economist Christian Buteler observes that “we still have a economy indexing high”. Added to this is a greater issuance of pesos as a result of the soybean dollar, which also puts pressure on prices in the economy. So, taking these variables into account, and that, as he postulates “the dollar it is one more price of the economy”, he expects the alternatives to end the year between $345 and $360, with a blue that seeks to catch up with them, but could fall behind around $330, according to some analysts.
The official dollar, pressured by the demands of the IMF
Since it is the price that “drives” the BCRAit is expected that the variable of the FMI mainly affects the evolution of the official. “That dollar it will appreciate at the same rate as November, when it was above 6%, or similar, and this aims to comply with what the Fund is asking for, which is to accelerate the rate of devaluation, reduce the gap and exit, at some point moment, of the plurality of exchange rates”, describe Glustein.
A) Yes, the price would end the year around $180 (taking a middle ground between the official wholesaler and the retailer). In conclusion, it is foreseeable that, towards the end of the year, the central keep the official running at approximately 6.5% per month while you buy dollars at $230”, anticipates Albornoz.
Soybean dollar 2: an injection of pesos
Here is another key element for the official exchange rate, but also for blue: the implementation of the soybean dollar 2 within the framework of the Soybean Export Incentive Program. And it is that, in some way, the higher price that the Central pays the sector puts pressure to accelerate the evolution of the official because, if that dollar advances more quickly, it reduces the cost of the program and because it is a way of recognizing the devaluation lagging behind that Argentina currently has.
But, on the other hand, the drop in informal quote This is due, in part, to a “wait and see” market, which wants to assess what could happen and where the surplus pesos injected by the soybean dollar 2 will go. Buteler explains that “this week there will be the first receipts of pesos from the soybean dollar 2 by the producers and we will see how much of that ends up putting pressure on the parallel exchange rate”.
As a prequel, it contributes that, in September (with the soybean dollar 1), from the ninth day of the month, the price began to rise around 10% as a result of the greater pressure generated by the program and does not rule out that this dynamic is repeated.
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Thus, although Fabio Rodríguez, director of MyR Consultores, points out that “the measure brings some short-term respite in the exchange, and in the fiscal (because more pesos go to the Treasury), similar to what happened with the soybean dollar 1”, warns that now it is different because it comes from a financial dollars awakening and from one loss of reserveswith growing doubts in the market about the destination of the new mountain of pesos that are going to be issued, to which is added the rise in seasonal demand for foreign currency for tourism.