The suspense remains intact on the eve of the first round of the French presidential election.
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According to the most recent polls, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are practically neck and neck in voting intentions.
And according to independent journalist Laurence Haïm, the outcome of the first round will be decisive for the rest of things. Who will be ahead? By what margin? Nothing is decided yet, says Ms. Haïm.
“If Marine Le Pen passes Emmanuel Macron, it will be a real political earthquake,” proclaims the journalist.
Laurence Haïm points out that there are still a very large number of undecided people in France; a situation that could cloud the cards, she warns.
“There are 25 to 30% of French people who refuse to vote, who say they are disgusted by politics and who want to abstain. There are people in this group who say: maybe we will go and vote at the last moment.” Finally, it is these 25 to 30% who will decide the French presidential election, in a certain way. , explains the independent journalist.
In recent weeks, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron’s lead has waned, as his main opponents, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélanchon.
For Laurence Haïm, several factors explain Macron’s decline in popularity. She mentions in particular the many crises that have hit France and the world during the mandate of the outgoing president: the yellow vests, COVID and the war in Ukraine, in particular.
But beyond these issues, a large part of the French population seems to have rejected the personality of Emmanuel Macron, notes the journalist. And for the latter, it is a major failure of the mandate of the outgoing president.
“He failed to convince the French that he could unite,” says Ms. Haïm.
While he had promised in 2017 to weaken the extremists, it is rather the opposite that has happened over the past five years, observes the independent journalist.
For her part, Marine Le Pen benefited from the presence of the radicalist candidate Éric Zemmour. Thanks to him, the leader of the National Rally seemed less extreme than in the past.
Moreover, while Macron has hardly campaigned, Marine Le Pen has multiplied meetings with French voters.
“She went to lots of French villages, she went out into the field and talked about purchasing power, how the French have lost their purchasing power. It is something that marked a lot and it appeared much less on the far right than before, ”says Laurence Haïm.
To see the full interview, watch the video above.