French Wheat Exports Face a Perfect Storm: Can Paris Navigate Algeria’s Shift and China’s Disinterest?
French wheat producers are bracing for a challenging 2025, even with a projected 30% recovery in production following a disastrous 2024. While a better harvest promises increased export volumes, the critical question isn’t if France can export, but where. The loss of Algeria as a key buyer, coupled with dwindling demand from China, is forcing a dramatic re-evaluation of export strategies and threatens to swell domestic stockpiles to levels not seen in over two decades.
The Algeria Factor: A Lost Market and Lingering Tensions
France has adapted to Algeria’s pivot towards Russian wheat since 2020, but the scale of the shift is now acutely felt. Historically, Algeria absorbed between two and five million tonnes of French wheat annually. Last year, that figure plummeted to a mere 30,000 tonnes – effectively closing a vital export route. With diplomatic relations remaining strained, a swift resumption of trade appears unlikely. This loss is particularly concerning given the anticipated increase in French wheat supply for 2025, estimated at a minimum of eight million tonnes destined for markets outside the European Union.
China’s Retreat: From Rising Star to Near Zero Demand
China briefly offered a lifeline, stepping in as Algeria’s market share diminished. In 2023, the Middle Kingdom purchased 2.4 million tonnes of French wheat. However, that appetite has evaporated. “Chinese appetite has become very small, even reduced to zero,” explains Maxence Devillers, a market analyst at Argus Media. Forecasts now predict a mere 500,000 tonnes of French wheat will be exported to China in the 2025-2026 campaign – a staggering decline.
New Markets Emerge, But Can They Fill the Gap?
France is actively seeking alternative buyers. Morocco has emerged as the leading destination, potentially importing 2.5 million tonnes this year. Sub-Saharan Africa represents another promising market, with projected demand of 2.4 million tonnes, and Egypt could take 900,000 tonnes. However, these markets, while significant, may not fully compensate for the combined losses of Algeria and China. The reliance on these regions also introduces new logistical and geopolitical considerations.
Record Stocks and Price Pressures
The inability to fully redirect lost exports is expected to lead to unprecedented storage levels in France. Forecasts point to potential stockpiles reaching four million tonnes – a level not witnessed since the 2004-2005 campaign. This glut, combined with strong production in other European nations like Romania (12.2 million tonnes projected) and Bulgaria (7.7 million tonnes projected), is driving down prices.
Wheat prices on the Euronext exchange are currently hovering around 190 euros per tonne for December delivery, with little prospect of improvement unless unforeseen climate events or geopolitical shocks occur. This price point is particularly problematic for French producers, who face average production costs of around 200 euros per tonne, according to Alexandre Willekens of Argus Media. The situation raises serious concerns about the financial viability of French wheat farming.
The Rise of the Black Sea and European Competition
The abundance of wheat isn’t limited to Europe. Increased production in the Black Sea region further intensifies competition and contributes to the downward pressure on prices. Romania and Bulgaria, collectively, could account for half of Europe’s wheat exports this campaign, according to Argus Media. This competitive landscape demands that France not only secure new markets but also find ways to differentiate its product and reduce production costs.
The future of French wheat exports hinges on a complex interplay of geopolitical factors, market dynamics, and production efficiency. Successfully navigating this “perfect storm” will require strategic diversification, proactive engagement with emerging markets, and a renewed focus on cost competitiveness. The coming year will be a critical test for French wheat producers, and the lessons learned will shape the industry for years to come.
What strategies do you believe will be most effective for French wheat producers in the face of these challenges? Share your insights in the comments below!
