Talking to PV Knowledge and Life on the occasion of the Lunar New Year, Dr. Le Dang Doanh, former director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) expressed optimism with the GDP growth target of 6.5 % in 2023, which the National Assembly just approved.
| Dr. Le Dang Doanh |
Scenarios
– In 2023, GDP growth target is set at 6.5%, is it feasible when the economic forecast is still challenging?
– The world situation has changed and will be unpredictable and difficult to predict: how does the war in Ukraine progress, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve complicatedly, causing disruptions to value chains, globalization and international integration. The economy faces many obstacles while nationalism in international trade emerges as a means of self-defense… Accordingly, this requires us to promptly identify changes in the situation and make appropriate decisions. In case, provision for different scenarios: volatile prices of crude oil and food, the world economy is at risk of falling into recession, many countries adjust exchange rates and interest rates, purchasing power in some export markets. Our traditions are on the decline.
Besides, the confrontation between the US and China creates opportunities for textiles and garments to increase exports to the US market, and the increase in agricultural prices also creates an opportunity to increase the prices of Vietnamese agricultural products…
Vietnam has signed 15 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), creating favorable conditions for our country’s exports. Currently, importing countries all set high requirements on hygiene, food safety, labor regimes, and environmental protection that our country’s exports must comply with. Industry 4.0, the transformation to a digital economy is both an opportunity and a challenge for our country. Renovating the management mechanism, creating favorable conditions for businesses, and improving the quality of our country’s human resources are urgent requirements we need to meet.
Agriculture has made important progress, the export of agro-forestry-fishery has reached a record, opening many new markets, the application of the digital economy in agriculture has made great progress, promoting the transition to a commercial economy. Green economy, circular economy.
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According to the Resolution on the socio-economic development plan for 2023 that the National Assembly approved at its session on November 10, it identifies key indicators such as: The growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about 6 ,5%; GDP per capita is about 4,400 US dollars (USD); The average growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI) is about 4.5%; The average growth rate of social labor productivity is about 5.0 – 6.0%…
– In your opinion, what should be done to overcome economic barriers?
It is expected that GDP growth will decrease compared to 2022, only about 6.5%, jobs will be more difficult. The government should continue to provide subsidies for businesses and workers to maintain production and ensure the lives of workers.
Enterprises need to strongly shift to the digital economy, apply science and technology, and improve the competitiveness of products and services. It is necessary to promptly exchange candidly with employees, encourage and share information with employees to create consensus and overcome difficulties and challenges together.
It is necessary to step up institutional reform, to really cut business conditions (do not cut form, combine three business conditions into one circular, say cut without cutting anything, without reducing costs). about time and money for businesses), publicize transparency, publish online who is responsible for handling business requests, when to answer…
“What worked yesterday may not be suitable for tomorrow.”
Need to expand credit package, promote public investment
– Many groups of solutions have been proposed for 2023, including stabilizing the macro-economy on the basis of flexible fiscal and monetary policies, how do you assess?
The government’s dual goal of both economic growth and macroeconomic stability is not a small challenge, but it is feasible because our country’s economy still has potentials that can be promoted.
It is necessary to continue to expand credit packages for businesses, help businesses revive and establish new businesses. The number of enterprises per 1000 people in our country is still very low, the Government and authorities at all levels need to continue to reform, encourage the establishment of new businesses, upgrade household economic households into enterprises registered under the Law on Enterprises. industry, cut down on lubrication costs (informal costs), continue to package tax exemptions and reductions for a number of industries and fields that need to be encouraged.
Enterprises must analyze the market situation, reorganize and restructure production, and bring to the market appropriate products and services. What worked yesterday may not be suitable for tomorrow.
– Public investment will be disbursed more thoroughly and remain one of the growth drivers in 2023. What is your view on this issue?
The government is promoting public investment as a lever to improve infrastructure (roads, bridges, Internet network…), investing in education and training to improve human resources.
Public investment is an important driver because public investment will expand and improve the quality of infrastructure and logistics, creating favorable opportunities for businesses to develop. Therefore, businesses need to actively cooperate and take advantage of public investment opportunities such as opening new highways, ports and airports. Public investment should focus on promoting the application of science and technology, improving the quality of human resources.
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Expectations 2023 is the year of “Doi Moi second”
– In the Resolution of the National Assembly, there is a requirement to study more broadly the fiscal policy space associated with public investment efficiency. What does this mean, sir?
Budget revenues need to be expanded to areas that have not been fully collected such as land acquisition in the digital economy, e-commerce, etc. On the basis of increasing revenue, it is possible to consider expanding relief packages, cut taxes and fees, encourage people to expand their businesses, establish new businesses, and link domestic and foreign-invested enterprises…
“Public investment is an important driving force that will expand and improve the quality of infrastructure and logistics, creating favorable opportunities for businesses to develop.”
– Many other goals such as average income per capita reaching USD 4,400, unemployment rate in urban areas below 4%, so what is the basis to achieve?
It is necessary to reform the institution, cut down the overlapping administrative apparatus, cut subsidies from the budget to mass organizations, and make public and transparent state budget revenues and expenditures. For example, going on a business trip to the country does not need a special plane, it is possible to use commercial flights, cut down on the cost of decorating expensive banners and banners, motorcyclists cannot read slogans in their lips. traffic school is too crowded…
Cut costs of the central and local budgets spent on inefficient domestic and foreign visits and surveys, prohibit forms of mobilizing business contributions for parties and receptions of officials and delegations. visit and survey.
It is necessary to smoothly apply e-Government, digital economy, digital citizenship, reduce paper costs, time and money of people and businesses. Continue to promote the anti-corruption campaign, mobilize the masses to actively participate in giving opinions, denouncing corruption, abuse of power and group interests, creating qualitative changes in the state administrative apparatus and public budget spending..
– As an economic expert, from a personal perspective, what are your expectations about Vietnam’s economy in 2023?
It is hoped that 2023 will be the second Doi Moi year, the year of a strong transition to the digital economy, strongly promoting democracy and people’s creativity, and repelling corruption and negativity in the state administrative apparatus.
Thank you very much for the exchange!
10 groups of tasks and solutions:
Continuing to give priority to maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, promoting growth, and ensuring major balances of the economy.
Focus on disease prevention, control and control.
Well perform the work of building and perfecting institutions and improving the effectiveness and efficiency of law enforcement organizations, ensuring discipline and discipline; strengthen the prevention and fight against corruption, negativity and wastefulness; promote administrative reform, improve business investment environment.
Accelerate the practical and effective implementation of economic restructuring in association with renovating the growth model, improving productivity, quality, efficiency, competitiveness, autonomy, adaptability and resilience. bear of the economy.
Focus on developing and perfecting a synchronous strategic infrastructure system, especially traffic infrastructure, infrastructure to respond to climate change, and digital infrastructure. Focus on environmental protection, effective management and use of land and resources.
Focus on developing human resources, especially high-quality human resources in association with promoting research, development and application of science and technology, promoting innovation and entrepreneurship.
Focus on comprehensive and synchronous development of cultural fields, ensuring the harmonious connection between economic development, culture and society; improve the people’s life, ensure social security.
Maintain independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, national defense and security, political stability, social order and safety.
Implement synchronously, comprehensively and effectively external activities, international integration, maintain a peaceful and stable environment for national development and enhance Vietnam’s position and prestige in the international arena. .
Promote information and communication work; improve the efficiency of mass mobilization and create social consensus.
>>> Invite readers to watch more videos of Politburo maneuvering and appointing Comrade Trieu Tai Vinh as Deputy Head of the Central Economic Commission
Source: People’s Television.