2024-01-15 10:22:09
The Paris Stock Exchange begins the session slightly lower Monday morning in a wait-and-see context a few hours before the start of the primary elections in the United States and while the results season is expected to continue. The CAC 40 index fell by 0.3% to 7,440 points.
After the banks were out of action on Friday, the results season will continue on Wall Street this week and monopolize the attention of investors in the absence of important economic meetings.
The fourth quarter publications generate particular anticipation due to the high valuation of the S&P 500, which trades at 19.5 times expected earnings, compared to a ten-year average of 17.6.
The CAC 40 index gained 0.6% last week to approach the important mark of 7,500 points, a welcome technical signal after a complicated start to the year so far.
The market was supported, among other things, by the good form of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which gained 6% last week, driven by investors’ expectations regarding an end to deflation in the Archipelago.
In the United States, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will publish their accounts on Tuesday, followed the next day by Alcoa and then by the oil services group SLB on Friday.
The economic agenda looks calmer with the highlight being the retail sales figures for the month of December, which will make it possible to gauge the health of consumption in the United States.
This statistic is particularly awaited as the statistic had exceeded expectations in November, an encouraging element when we know that household consumption represents two-thirds of American GDP.
Between October and November 2023, seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU, according to Eurostat, after declines of 0.7% and 0.0% respectively. 5% between September and October.
In the euro zone, the decline in the production of durable consumer goods reached 2%, while the production of non-durable consumer goods increased by 1.2%.
The start of the electoral process for the presidential campaign in November will be another point of attention for the markets.
The Republican primary in Iowa takes place today, while this small Midwestern state is currently being swept by a snowstorm.
Analysts point out that this state has a population that is 90% white and predominantly evangelical, which makes it a good barometer for the Republicans.
‘Barring any last-minute surprises, all polls indicate that Trump is able to win the Republican nomination,’ underlines Christopher Dembik, investment strategy advisor at Pictet AM.
Uncertainty around the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut could also continue to generate volatility, while the latest inflation data calls for a delay.
The markets are currently counting on a 70% chance of a first easing in March, followed by two other reductions in the interest rate in May and then in June, expectations considered too aggressive by some analysts.
Only the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for the end of the month, will provide some visibility on the future development of monetary policy.
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