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global warming involved, according to a study

For 39 international scientists gathered under the banner of the World Weather Attribution (WWA), there is no doubt: “Climate change has increased the probability, but also the intensity” deadly July floods in Germany and Belgium, said Frank Kreienkamp, ​​of the German weather service, who piloted the study, in an online presentation. The episode has “Largely beaten historically recorded precipitation records” on affected areas, say the researchers.

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The occurrence of such an extreme episode in these regions has been made up to 9 times more likely by the warming due to human activity, with at least 20% more probability. Climate change has also “Increases the amount of rain over a day by between 3% and 19%”, according to scientists at WWA, which brings together experts from various research institutes around the world.

This is the second study to clearly point to warming in the natural disasters that have multiplied this summer. The WWA had previously calculated that the “Heat dome” that affected Canada and the American West at the end of June would have been ” almost impossible “ without the effects of climate change.

The 1.5 degree rise could be reached in 2030

In early August, the IPCC also sounded the alarm in a shock report, pointing to global warming even faster and stronger than feared, threatening humanity with disasters ” unprecedented “. The threshold of + 1.5 ° C – an ideal target not to be exceeded according to the Paris agreement – could thus be reached around 2030, i.e. 10 years earlier than estimated.

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The devastating effects – droughts, fires or floods – are already being felt around the world. The heavy floods of July 14 and 15 caused by torrential rains had notably killed at least 190 people in Germany and 38 in Belgium.

Germany will have to devote 30 billion euros to the reconstruction of disaster areas and the disaster has placed the issue of the climate emergency at the center of public debate a few weeks of decisive elections at the end of September for the succession of the Chancellor Angela Merkel.


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