2024-05-01 13:27:46
Global warming is the “most likely” explanation for the torrential rains that fell last week in the United Arab Emirates and Oman, causing deaths and catastrophic flooding, says a group of scientists in a study published Thursday.
Precipitation during years marked by the El Niño phenomenon increased by 10 to 40% in these oil-producing Gulf countries, underlines the study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network, according to which “warming, caused by the combustion of fuels fossils”, is “the most probable explanation” for this phenomenon.
There are no “other known explanations for the increased rainfall in the region,” the researchers say.
The storm which affected several countries in this desert region left 22 dead in Oman and four in the United Arab Emirates, where record rains caused major flooding.
This shows “that even dry regions can be heavily affected by precipitation, a threat that increases with global warming caused by fossil fuels,” emphasizes Sonia Seneviratne, professor at ETH University Zurich and member of the WWA.
This international group of scientists, which studies the role of climate change in extreme weather events, used historical data and climate models to study the evolution of precipitation in the region, including during El Niño episodes, a cyclical climatic phenomenon.
The study highlights that extreme rainfall was less intense before the average temperature on the planet increased by 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
“Extreme precipitation has become at least 10% more severe in the United Arab Emirates and Oman,” notes Mariam Zachariah, researcher at Imperial College London. Which is “in agreement with basic physics that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.”
Torrential rains first fell on Oman last week, before reaching the Emirates, where the equivalent of almost two years of precipitation fell in one day on April 16, paralyzing part of the country.
In the ultra-modern city of Dubai, several residential areas and roads were flooded, while the airport, one of the busiest in the world, had to cancel more than 2,000 flights.
Emirati Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum announced on Wednesday $544 million to repair damaged housing, saying he had “learned great lessons on how to deal with heavy rains.”
The authorities assured the day following the storm that they had not resorted to cloud seeding, often used in the country to generate artificial rain.
For the WWA, which says it has not examined the influence of this technology, “given the magnitude of the storm system, massive precipitation would have fallen” in any case.
Dubai hosted global climate talks last year, which resulted in a historic agreement on a phase-out of fossil fuels.
The United Arab Emirates, the world’s seventh largest crude oil producer, is investing heavily in renewable energy, while continuing to increase its oil and gas production capacity.
“At COP28, the world agreed to abandon fossil fuels. Almost six months later, countries continue to open new oil and gas fields,” lamented climatologist Friederike Otto , member of the WWA.
“If the world continues to burn fossil fuels, precipitation in many parts of the world will become increasingly heavy, leading to deadlier and more destructive floods,” he warned.
On Thursday, traces of the floods were still visible in Sharjah, an emirate north of Dubai, where doctors warned of pollution from stagnant water more than a week following the rains, and health risks.
The flooded areas might have been contaminated by waste and sewage, Doctor Iman Abdul Qadi of Burjeel Hospital in Sharjah told AFP.
Prolonged contact with these waters “can lead to skin infections and intestinal problems if ingested”, she added, also highlighting the risks linked to the proliferation of mosquitoes, which carry diseases.
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