Gold fluctuates violently and the dollar is lurking… for fear of inflation data

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A few hours before the release of US consumer price data that determines the direction of inflation in the world’s largest economies, gold entered a wave of decline enveloped in volatility.

While the dollar is waiting for the opportunity to regain its throne and test the levels of the top 20 years, after expectations of the Fed’s next move on interest rates moved.

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Gold fluctuated during trading today, Wednesday, between levels of $ 1803 as a bottom, and levels of $ 1811.6 an ounce as a top, before reducing its losses that exceeded $ 8.

Gold is retreating during these moments of trading today, Wednesday, in the range of 5 dollars, down to the levels of 1807 dollars per ounce, down by 0.25% before the data was released.

Gold prices rose yesterday by 0.4%, or 7.10 dollars, to reach 1812.30 dollars an ounce at the settlement, which is the highest level since the end of last June.

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On the other hand, the dollar index fell during these moments in the range of 0.2% to levels of 106.2 points against a basket of major currencies, as the euro rose 0.1%, the sterling increased 0.15%, while the Australian dollar rose 0.2%.

The main dollar index is oscillating against a basket of six currencies during trading today, Wednesday, between peak levels at 106.4 points and trough levels at 106.16 points.

On the other hand, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds fell below 2.8%, as it declined during these moments of trading today, Wednesday, by 0.0119 to 2.77%.

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Expectations

“If inflation comes in stronger than expected, after last week’s strong jobs report, we could see some rate cut expectations for next year decline less than expected, which will be negative for gold,” said DailyFX Currency Analyst Ilya Spivak.

Economists polled by “Archyde.com” expected annual inflation in the United States to decline to 8.7% in July from 9.1% in June, and the core inflation rate is expected to reach 0.5%.

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Wells Fargo said US inflation could drop to 5% by October, given lower gasoline prices. US gasoline prices have fallen from more than $5 a gallon in June to nearly $4 on Tuesday.

Inflation in the US unexpectedly rose to 9.1% in June, but since then oil and gasoline prices have fallen sharply as fears of an economic slowdown spread.

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Fears

“Investors understand that both the United States and the global economy face significant challenges,” said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACI Securities.

Clifford Bennett added, but the focus will be on the question of how long the price hike will continue, which is a burden on the market.

Any sudden weakness in US inflation data could be the catalyst for a massive rally in gold prices, said Acy Securities’ chief economist.

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The New York Federal Reserve’s July survey showed inflation expectations for next year fell to 6.2% from 6.8% expected in June, and expectations for the next three years fell to 3.2% from 3.6% in June.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said US inflation is expected to ease over the coming months, but the stock market may not benefit from this development.

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The only threat

The only threat to gold’s gains is Fed officials’ rush to ensure that the bank will spare no effort to tackle inflation that is at its highest level in more than 40 years, and the tightening voices were heard last Friday night following the release of positive jobs data.

Goldman Sachs says market expectations of the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve have risen after the strong employment data.

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The bank concluded that the Fed has more headway than we thought before today, maintaining its forecast for a 50bp rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 20-21.

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