Great Barometer: the PTB signs a record in Wallonia, the N-VA returns to the lead in Flanders

Where will the rise in the PTB stop? The Labor Party of Belgium records its highest score in the history of our Grand Barometer RTL INFO-Ipsos-Le Soir. If we voted again tomorrow, the party of the anti-capitalist left would be close to 20%.

Here are the key takeaways from our survey. You will find the complete results by region a little further down.

• PTB record in Wallonia

19.7% is unheard of for Raoul Hedebouw’s party in the history of our polls. This score allows the PTB to establish its third place in Wallonia, and even to ogle on the head. The difference is small with the PS and the MR. It is even below the margins of error.

In Brussels, the PTB progresses and even symbolically passes in front of the PS.

• Bad luck for the PS

Unlike the PTB, the PS recorded one of its lowest scores in the history of our survey: 22.4%.

In Brussels, the Socialists are relegated to 4th place and overtaken by the PTB.

• MR stable in Wallonia, increasing in Brussels

As for the MR, it would still attract one voter out of 5 in Wallonia, as in the last elections.

In the capital, the MR achieves the most significant progress: +2.5 points.

In Wallonia, as in Brussels, Ecolo does not pay for the extension of nuclear power: the greens are stable in the South and are even regaining color in the capital.

GREAT BAROMETER: THE RESULTS

Wallonie

The results by party: in brackets the results in the 2019 elections and in the previous poll in December.

1. PS 22.4 (elections 2019: 26.1 | previous poll: 24.9)
2. MR 20.4 (elections 2019: 20.5 | previous poll: 22.3)
3. PTB 19.7 (elections 2019: 13.8 | previous poll: 18.2)
4. Eco 15.0 (elections 2019: 14.9 | previous poll: 15.5)
5. Committed 9.5 (elections 2019: 10.7 | previous poll: 8.0)
6. CHALLENGE 3.7 (elections 2019: 4.1 | previous poll: 4.2)

Margin of error of +-3.1%.

The percentages are calculated on the basis of respondents who expressed an intention to vote for a party, i.e. 891 people out of the 1009 people questioned in Wallonia (88%). The answers “will not vote”, “will vote blank” and “really do not want to answer” represent 12% of those questioned. The maximum theoretical margin of error is +-3.3.

Brussels-Capital Region

The results by party: in brackets the results in the 2019 elections and in the previous poll in December.

1. Green 20.3 (elections 2019: 21.6 | previous poll: 19.3)
2. MR 19.9 (elections 2019: 17.5 | previous poll: 17.4)
3. PTB*PVDA 16.4 (elections 2019: 12.3 | previous poll: 15.1)
4. PS 15.1 (elections 2019: 20.0 | previous poll: 15.1)
5. CHALLENGE 10.8 (elections 2019: 10.3 | previous poll: 11.3)
6. Committed 4.9 (elections 2019: 5.8 | previous poll: 5.2)
7. N-VA 3.5 (elections 2019: 3.2 | previous poll: 3.3)
8. Vlaams Belang 2.3 (elections 2019: 1.5 | previous poll: 3.0)
9. …

Margin of error of +-4%.

The percentages are calculated on the basis of respondents who expressed an intention to vote for a party, ie 551 people out of the 598 people questioned in Brussels (90%). The answers “will not vote”, “will vote blank” and “really does not want to answer” represent 10% of those questioned. The maximum theoretical margin of error is +-4.2.

Flanders

In Flanders, the N-VA was the leading party in the 2019 elections: Bart De Wever’s party is symbolically back in the lead in our Grand Barometer. For two and a half years, the first place was occupied by the Vlaams Belang, the far-right Flemish party.

The results by party: in brackets the results in the 2019 elections and in the previous poll in December.

1. N-VA 23.4 (elections 2019: 25.5 | previous poll: 21.6)
2. Vlaams Belang 22.2 (elections 2019: 18.7 | previous poll: 24.5)
3. Vooruit (Flemish Socialists) 14.2 (elections 2019: 10.8 | previous poll: 13.9)
4. CD&V 11.3 (elections 2019: 14.2 | previous poll: 10.7)
5. Open Vld 9.8 (elections 2019: 13.5 | previous poll: 10.3)
6. PVDA (PTB Flamand) 8.9 (elections 2019: 5.6 | previous poll: 8.9)
7. Green 8.4 (elections 2019: 9.8 | previous poll: 8.4)

Margin of error of +-3.1%.

The percentages are calculated on the basis of respondents who expressed an intention to vote for a party, ie 947 people out of the 1007 people questioned in Flanders (94%). The answers “will not vote”, “will vote blank” and “really does not want to answer” represent 6% of those questioned. The maximum theoretical margin of error is +-3.2.

Alexander De Croo favorite in (almost) every region

As for personalities, Alexander de Croo remains the favorite of the Belgians: the liberal is first in Flanders, first tied in Brussels, and second in Wallonia where he goes up to Sophie Wilmès, the former Prime Minister.

On the Flemish side, Frank Vandenbroucke disappears from the podium in Flanders while Bart de Wever returns to the 3rd step.

On the French-speaking side, it is still Paul Magnette who is third, both in Wallonia and in Brussels.

Wallonie

In parentheses the ranking in the previous survey of December 2021.

1. Sophie Wilmes: 1 (1)
2. Alexander De Croo: 2 (2)
3. Paul Magnette: 3 (3)

Brussels-Capital

In parentheses the ranking in the previous survey of December 2021.

1. Alexander De Croo: 1 (2)
2. Sophie Wilmès: tied 1 (1)
3. Paul Magnette: 3 (3)

Flanders

In parentheses the ranking in the previous survey of December 2021.

1. Alexander De Croo: 1 (1)
2. Conner Rousseau (President of the Flemish Socialists): 2 (2)
3. Bart De Wever: Tied 2 (4)

Information on conducting the survey

The survey was carried out online from 15 to 22 March 2022 with 2,614 respondents, forming representative samples of Belgians aged 18 and over at the rate of 1,009 in Wallonia, 1,007 in Flanders and 598 in the 19 municipalities of the Brussels- Capital city. The maximum margin of error is +-3.1% in Wallonia and Flanders and +-4% in Brussels.