It is not yet quite the dreaded recession, but perhaps the prefiguration of an annus horribilis in 2023 for the French economy.
According to the latest INSEE economic forecasts, published on Wednesday September 7, growth for 2022 should stand at 2.6%, with the third quarter set to be sluggish (+0.2% growth instead of +0, 3% expected before the summer) and the fourth sluggish (+0.0%, instead of +0.3%). A sharp brake after the 6.8% rebound in 2021, and above all a more than modest impetus to start 2023. At this stage, the growth overhang for next year is only around +0.2%.
And again, these forecasts for France are part of a “central” scenario, as Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation at INSEE, reminds us. In other words, things can go better than expected, but can also go downhill. Given the energy unknowns and rising interest rates, a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter – thus marking the first step towards recession, which assumes two consecutive quarters of declines – “is not excluded in the event of an increase in the difficulties of energy supply in Europe”, admits Insee. We will have to take into account other hazards, geopolitical, health or even climatic. “The risk of recession is increasing”warned for his part, during a speech in Brussels, the European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni. “We could well be heading into one of the toughest winters in generations. »
At the start of the 2022 school year, it is mainly production tensions – supply problems, shortages, lack of labor – that are weighing on activity and maintaining inflation. The slight decline recorded in August on prices, when the rise in prices over the last twelve months fell to 5.8% instead of 6.1% in July, should only be temporary. Inflation would be 6.6% at the end of December, according to INSEE. The figure would be much higher without the price shield, which reduces the price increase by 2.5 points. On average over the year, prices will have increased by 5.3% in 2022, compared to 1.6% in 2021.
Little room for other expenses
Above all, inflation, which mainly affected energy at the start of the year, is spreading more and more in all areas of the economy, and particularly in that of food. The rise in prices on the shelves of supermarkets could be close to 12%, announces INSEE, while manufactured goods will show an increase of around 5%. It is now the food item that is primarily responsible for the rise in prices in France, thus doubling energy. an outbreak « which is due to the increase in production prices “, explains Mr. Pouget, whether it is directly agricultural prices or the price of the energy necessary to transform, store or transport foodstuffs. In one year, production prices have increased by 35% in the agricultural sector, by 20% in industry and by 7% in services.
You have 41.21% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.