Growth should continue in the third quarter, according to the Banque de France

2023-08-09 13:29:00

Still no recession in sight in France. The Banque de France said that economic activity in the country increased by 0.1% over one month, in July, we learn in its monthly economic report, unveiled this Wednesday, August 9. This observation allows him to anticipate a third quarter still growing, while Europe is beginning to feel the effects of the rise in interest rates which have seized up the credit and investment machine in order to curb inflation.

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The industry is picking up and prices are easing

In detail, in July, the increase in activity ” observed in industry and market services, while construction should be stable “, observes the Banque de France on the basis of its survey carried out among 8,500 business leaders between July 21 and August 4.

With regard to industry, however, activity is still below its long-term average and production capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector is falling, falling to 77%, compared to 79% in January 2022. The activities of most market services grew, with the exception of personal services and temporary work. Besides, ” activity is progressing in the building sector, mainly in the second work “, notes the central bank.

Business leaders’ view of their cash position remains more negative than usual, although it is stabilizing across the industry. due to the continued easing of energy and commodity prices “. Order books are filling up somewhat, except in building, where structural work is penalized by a “ sharp decline in sales of new single-family homes ».

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The supply difficulties, which had slowed the recovery of many sectors of activity, after the Covid-19 pandemic, “ are becoming scarce “. More than one company in five still reports it in industry, but only 12% in construction.

Finally, ” the rate of price increases is returning to its pre-Covid level “, whether in industry, services or construction, according to the Banque de France. Business leaders are thus 9% to declare having increased their selling prices last month, against 27% in July 2022. And 6% say to have lowered them, “ linked to the easing of commodity prices », against only 1% a year ago.

A less good end to the year than the beginning

Growth in July and that anticipated for the third quarter are therefore less significant than that of the second quarter, which had posted an increase of 0.5% compared to the first. In question, ” temporary factors having supported activity in the spring, such as an increase in naval and aircraft deliveries as well as a technical rebound linked to the end of strikes against pension reform in refineries and transport.

“For the first time, French growth is driven much more by exports than by consumption”had also reacted the Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire on RTL.

But the Banque de France ensures that these temporary growth gains will not last for the next few months. However, this does not mean mechanical correction In the third quarter, estimates the institution, at a time when Germany is flirting with recession.

(With AFP)