Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned on Friday that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could force Gulf energy exporters to halt supplies within weeks, potentially driving oil prices to $150 a barrel and triggering a global economic downturn. The warning, delivered to the Financial Times, came as oil prices surged to a two-year high, topping $93 a barrel, according to the BBC.
Al-Kaabi stated that energy producers across the Gulf region are likely to declare force majeure and suspend deliveries if hostilities persist. “Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues,” he said. “If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”
The potential disruption to Gulf energy exports extends beyond crude oil. Qatar stopped liquefied natural gas (LNG) production following a drone strike on the Ras Laffan plant, further constricting global energy supplies. Al-Kaabi cautioned that prolonged disruptions would have far-reaching economic consequences, stating, “This will bring down the economies of the world.” He predicted a significant impact on global GDP growth and widespread increases in energy prices, alongside shortages of various products and disruptions to manufacturing supply chains.
The crisis is particularly acute for Asian economies, which rely heavily on Gulf oil imports. According to the Economist, the Gulf supplies between 40% and 80% of the seaborne crude imports of China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, driven by insurance withdrawals and perceived risk, has already halted roughly 20% of global petroleum flow, according to Thomson Reuters.
The situation is compounded by simultaneous disruptions to shipping through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb corridor, due to Houthi attacks. Thomson Reuters reports that this represents a dual-chokepoint crisis, compromising roughly one-third of global seaborne crude trade. All five major container lines have suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating supply chain delays.
Beyond oil, disruptions to petrochemical and fertilizer feedstocks, similarly supplied by Gulf producers, threaten agricultural and chemical supply chains. Thomson Reuters notes that one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the United Kingdom, petrol prices have already increased by 3.7p and diesel by 6p since Saturday, reaching a 16-month high, according to the RAC. The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority is closely monitoring petrol station pricing.
As of Monday, March 9, 2026, You’ll see approximately 15 million barrels of Russian crude oil on tankers in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, with an additional 7 million barrels idling near Singapore, according to Moneycontrol. The status of these shipments remains uncertain amid the escalating tensions.
