Gaza – Hamas has reportedly begun holding internal elections to choose a new leader at a pivotal moment for the militant Palestinian movement. The vote comes as Hamas faces critical decisions regarding its future, including potential cooperation with proposed US peace plans and the possibility of disarmament, following a devastating military campaign that has decimated its leadership ranks and left Gaza in ruins.
According to reports from the BBC and Gulf press, voting among Hamas members in Gaza has already taken place. Members in the West Bank, those held in Israeli prisons, and those in the diaspora are expected to cast ballots for delegates to the movement’s 50-member general Shura council, which will ultimately select the new politburo and interim leader. The process is anticipated to last several weeks.
The incoming leader will inherit a complex and precarious situation. The movement must navigate the terms of potential peace negotiations, determine the extent to which it will relinquish its arsenal, and assess its role in a potential new Gaza government. These decisions are unfolding against a backdrop of immense loss and destruction, with over 75,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza over the past 28 months, according to reports.
The leadership vacuum stems from a sustained Israeli military campaign that has targeted key Hamas figures. Among those killed were Yahya Sinwar, the former Gaza leader, and Mohammed Deif, the military chief responsible for the October 2023 attack on southern Israel that resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, including over 800 civilians. The Guardian reports that Israel also assassinated Saleh al-Arouri, the movement’s deputy leader, in Beirut in January 2024, and Ismail Haniyeh, the overall political leader, in Tehran in July 2024. An Israeli attempt to eliminate much of the remaining leadership in a September 2024 airstrike on Doha, Qatar, where leaders were meeting to discuss a US peace proposal, was unsuccessful.
The Frontrunners: Al-Hayya and Meshaal
Two names have emerged as leading contenders in the leadership contest: Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Meshaal. Both survived the Doha airstrike, positioning them as potential successors with distinct visions for Hamas’s future. Al-Hayya, currently leading the Gaza wing while residing in the Gulf, is considered a hardliner and a protégé of Sinwar, with close ties to Iran, Hamas’s primary foreign sponsor.
Meshaal, a founding member of Hamas and a former overall leader for over two decades, currently heads the movement abroad and is based in Doha. He is viewed as more pragmatic, maintaining stronger relationships with Qatar and Turkey. Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence colonel at Tel Aviv University, told The Guardian that Meshaal is open to exploring a political settlement with Israel, potentially including reconciliation with the Palestinian Authority and re-engagement within the formal Palestinian political system.
“These two represent two different camps, and different agendas about the future and the goals of Hamas,” Milshtein said.
Secrecy and Security Concerns
The election is taking place under conditions of extreme secrecy, reflecting the constant threat faced by Hamas leaders. Khaled Elgindy, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, noted the inherent risk associated with assuming a leadership position. “Whoever is in the leadership – whether it’s the Shura council or the actual top leadership – the question is who wants to be in that position knowing that they will most likely be on an Israeli hitlist?”
Elgindy also emphasized the existential nature of this transition for Hamas. “It’s clear that This represents going to be a new chapter for Hamas, and it may even be existential. Will Hamas survive? What will it look like? Obviously, they’re going to do anything and everything to avoid the optics of a surrender,” he said. He added that Meshaal’s connections to Qatar and Turkey could prove valuable in navigating the complex regional dynamics, potentially diminishing Hamas’s reliance on Iran, which is currently facing its own internal challenges.
Reuters reported that Hamas has been actively rebuilding its organization in recent weeks, collecting taxes, and replacing officials in Gaza ministries.
The Path Forward
Under the Trump administration’s proposed peace plan, a group of non-affiliated Palestinian technocrats, known as the National Committee for Administration of Gaza (NCAG), is slated to assume control of Gaza and oversee Hamas’s disarmament. While Hamas leaders have reportedly signaled a willingness to consider handing over heavier weaponry to a Palestinian body, it is anticipated that fighters will resist surrendering personal firearms, citing the need for self-defense against local armed groups and criminal elements.
The outcome of this leadership election will undoubtedly shape the future trajectory of Hamas and its role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The new leader will face immense pressure to address the immediate humanitarian crisis in Gaza, navigate complex political negotiations, and determine the organization’s long-term strategy. The coming weeks will be critical in understanding how Hamas intends to respond to these unprecedented challenges.
What are your thoughts on the future of Hamas and the peace process? Share your comments below.
