Justin Trudeau did well to lower expectations for the health meeting.
The agreement will never live up to the rhetoric of the past year.
He knows it. He certainly avoided getting stuck in a big peak negotiating in front of the cameras until 3am.
But in fact, he remains in a situation too similar to that of Paul Martin in 2004.
Of course, the provinces will not get the $28 billion they demanded in the first year. They never believed it.
But Ottawa will pay. More than he wanted. Justin Trudeau no longer has any political leeway.
General tiredness
The great dreams of lasting transformation formulated in Ottawa in the face of the tragedies of the pandemic are today confronted with the wear and tear of power.
The passport fiasco, the firearms fiasco, the Chinese interference, the Roxham Road, the list of failures goes on. Voters’ anger is brewing.
The Trudeau government can hardly lecture the provinces on the proper management of public funds. Nor does he have the luxury of being blamed for prolonging the crisis in the health care system.
This is how “buying reforms” gave way to “helping the provinces”. The famous conditions gave way to the promise of data and results.
But Ottawa will pay. For many years.
The final agreement will be more generous than the $21.5 billion over five years provided for in the PLC platform.
It will certainly have contributed to putting pressure on the provinces to dare structural reforms and a technological shift that has been postponed for too long.
But that’s all
The agreement will not be historic. It will not regulate health for a generation.
It will end up being concluded because on both sides, they are all exhausted by this showdown.