Hostage Crisis: Hamas’ Strategy for Pressure and Negotiations

2023-10-08 18:00:00

For Hamas, hostages are a formidable means of pressure

Dozens of Israeli hostages were captured according to the army in the south of the country by Hamas commandos during the October 7 assault and brought back to Gaza. On Sunday afternoon, the government press office put forward the figure of more than 100 hostages – without specifying whether it also counted those who were held during these two days in Israeli towns and villages, then released. where are you. Despite their imprecision, these figures are staggering, as is the toll of 600 Israeli deaths, which exceeds all Israeli deaths at the hands of Palestinians since the end of the second intifada and the disengagement from Gaza in 2005. In a a small country of 9 million inhabitants, this means that a huge part of the population knows one of the victims directly or indirectly.

Families crowd near Tel Aviv airport, where the police and army have set up a reception center for the families of the missing – dead, injured, kidnapped, on the run. Some recognized their loved ones in videos broadcast by Hamas from inside Gaza, like that of this frightened young boy who is mocked by other Palestinian boys because he is crying; or the one showing the seemingly lifeless body of a naked, tattooed young woman. There is also this elderly woman, Yafa Adar, 85, driven into the enclave in the back of an electric cart, perhaps senile, clearly unaware of the danger, who smiled on Saturday at the crowd cheering her capture; and these five men filmed shackled on the ground in a dark room – perhaps soldiers. Hamas claims to have them, as well as officers. He promised to specify their number on Sunday.

For the Islamist movement, these captives are a formidable means of pressure. As of Saturday, a senior executive, Saleh Al-Arouri, affirmed that the organization now had the means to free all Palestinian activists detained in Israel, by exchanging them. In 2011, a previous government of Benjamin Netanyahu had 1,027 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for a single hostage, soldier Gilat Shalit, captured by Hamas in a raid of unprecedented scale, and detained for more than five years. Yahya Sinouar, the current leader of Hamas in Gaza, owes him his freedom.

An Israeli woman kidnapped, in Khan Younes, in the south of the Gaza Strip, October 7, 2023. – / AFP

The organization has held two living civilian hostages for nine years, and the bodies of two soldiers, declared dead by the army, for almost ten years. Their release was the subject of persistent negotiations, notably through Egypt, without success. Aware of the value of these captures, the Palestinian movement set up a specialized group responsible for monitoring the prisoners. It is “shadow unity”created in 2006, and whose existence was revealed in 2016. It became known in particular by broadcasting a video of soldier Shalit which showed, among other things, the hostage having a barbecue on a beach in Gaza, or watching TV.

For the Israeli government, the presence of these detainees in Gaza infinitely complicates the next military phase in the enclave. Their fate is uncertain, while the army has already struck 800 targets on Saturday in the enclave, rolling out a pre-established list kept up to date by intelligence – tunnels, military installations, offices of Hamas and its ally, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. , residence of their military and political leaders… These strikes left at least 370 dead, and nearly 2,000 injured, according to Gaza health authorities. “We must be cruel now and not think too much about the hostages [à Gaza]. It’s time to act “, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reportedly declared yesterday, according to the Israeli press, during the cabinet meeting. His office has not denied this.

The Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, briefly mentioned their fate on Saturday evening, in his address to the nation: “I say to Hamas: you are responsible for their well-being. Israel will attack anyone who harms even a hair of their head. » For Yaakov Amidror, former national security adviser to Mr. Netanyahu (2011-2013), Israel must demand the release of the hostages without negotiations, as a prerequisite for a ceasefire, “even if it means bombing relentlessly for a year”specifies this “hawk”, linked to the religious right. For his successor, Eyal Hulata, the urgency is on the contrary to free these hostages, which according to him would partly motivate a land operation in the enclave, which he recommends: “We have people there, alive, we need to bring them back, act quickly and decisively”.

Read also: Hamas attack against Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister at war despite himself

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Louis Imbert (Jerusalem, correspondent)
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