2023-09-05 08:29:00
The NFL is a fast-paced business. This applies not only to players, but also to coaches. sport.de will tell you which trainers will have to worry about their jobs in the coming NFL season and who can work with their team in peace in the big hot seat ranking of NFL coaches.
Unlike the players, the coaches’ contracts do not count against the salary cap, so the financial extent is less visible. However, from December 2017 to December 2022, teams spent over $800 million on fired coaches and general managers…
On average, seven head coaches lose their positions every year. Usually on “Black Monday”, the Monday after the last game day of the regular season, but sometimes in the middle of the season.
As a rule of thumb, a new head coach is often given three years. A year to get to know the team and set the course and a year to put the right pieces of the puzzle together. A playoff participation should be achieved in the third year.
Below I have divided the head coaches into different categories. Some coaches are firmly in the saddle, while others are committed to success. Otherwise it’s time to clear the office!
Category 1: almost 100% safe
John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens
Sean McDermott – Buffalo Bills
Frank Reich – Carolina Panthers
Zac Taylor – Cincinnati Bengals
Sean Payton – Denver Broncos
Matt LaFleur – Green Bay Packers
Shane Steichen – Indianapolis Colts
Doug Pederson – Jacksonville Jaguars
Andy Reid – Kansas City Chiefs
Sean McVay – Los Angeles Rams
Mike McDaniel – Miami Dolphins
Kevin O’Connell – Minnesota Vikings
Brian Daboll – New York Giants
Nick Sirianni – Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Tomlin – Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Shanahan – San Francisco 49ers
Pete Carroll – Seattle Seahawks
Mike Vrabel – Tennessee Titans
I’ve been amazed at how many coaches can feel completely confident this year. These 18 coaches should all remain firmly in the saddle, even in the face of a disappointing season. If a season is a complete disaster, I can only imagine Pete Carroll or Sean McVay deciding together with the front office to go their separate ways.
Another dark horse might be Sean McDermott. Because of him, the Buffalo Bills are experiencing their most successful time in 20 years. However, it hasn’t been enough to make a big splash so far. If we don’t make it to at least the AFC Championship Game this season, I could certainly imagine a surprising dismissal of McDermott.
Category 2: actually safe, but…
Jonathan Gannon – Arizona Cardinals
Matt Eberflus – Chicago Bears
Mike McCarthy – Dallas Cowboys
Dan Campbell – Detroit Lions
DeMeco Ryans – Houston Texans
Bill Belichick – New England Patriots
Robert Saleh – New York Jets
If you take my rule of thumb for new head coaches, all 1st year head coaches should belong to the first category. I’m not sure about the Cardinals and Texans, though.
Jonathan Gannon is already being traded with the Cardinals for the 2024 first overall pick and if you look at the roster, it’s hard to see more than five wins. Gannon certainly deserves another year, but given the current status of the franchise, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was fired.
It’s similar with DeMeco Ryans; The Texans’ two “one and done” head coaching appointments simply leave their mark.
Mike McCarthy, Dan Campbell and Robert Saleh all need to succeed. With Saleh and Campbell, reaching the playoffs is certainly enough (for now), but McCarthy has to at least get to the NFC Championship Game.
Bill Belichick is certainly the biggest surprise. However, reports of a power struggle in New England continue. Belichick was said to no longer be untouchable last year. Another bad season could finally be the final straw.
Category 3: unsafe
Arthur Smith – Atlanta Falcons
Brandon Staley – Los Angeles Chargers
Dennis Allen – New Orleans Saints
Todd Bowles – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Other than Todd Bowles, all other coaches in this category have to make the playoffs or they’re probably gone.
Brandon Staley was once considered a young coaching genius and defensive specialist. He needs to win a playoff game this season.
Otherwise, the Chargers will probably look for a new head coach. The poor defense in 2022, the lean offense despite Justin Herbert and the embarrassing squandering of a 27-0 lead in the playoffs last season against the Jacksonville Jaguars are putting Staley under a lot of pressure.
Arthur Smith and Dennis Allen are also forced to succeed. Smith in particular has a handicap with quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. I don’t see Smith as head coach of the Falcons next year.
Todd Bowles needs to show he can lead a Buccaneers roster in a rebuild. Otherwise, his second head coaching stint is also over.
Category 4: actually gone, but…
Kevin Stefanski – Cleveland Browns
Josh McDaniels – Las Vegas Raiders
Ron Rivera – Washington Commanders
I’m almost certain that we won’t see all three of them as head coaches at their current teams next year.
McDaniels was already considered a hot seat candidate last season and the team hasn’t really strengthened. The glimmer of hope, the reunion with Jimmy Garoppolo, is difficult to believe given Jimmy G.’s injury history.
The Browns will have to make Kevin Stefanski a pawn after another mixed Deshaun Watson season. They have made a long-term commitment to Watson and will try to find a new head coach at his side who will bring his performance back to its old level.
Everything in Washington is looking for a new beginning: new owner, new starting QB… new head coach?! If Ron Rivera doesn’t lead the Commanders into the Wild Card Round, they will certainly want to hire a new head coach to “reboot” the franchise.
Lennart Scholz
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