(CNN Spanish) — At the end of the day, elections anywhere in the world come down to one number: the number of votes to win. And the first round of the presidential elections in Colombia, which will take place this Sunday, May 29, is no exception.
There are six presidential candidates (of the withdrawn), including Gustavo Petro and Federico “Fico” Gutiérrez are emerging as favorites. But even with these favorites, surveys They anticipate that it will be difficult for anyone to exceed the threshold of votes necessary to win in the first round, so a second instance would be needed on June 19.
How many votes, then, are necessary to have a president on May 29 and avoid a second election day three weeks later?
How many people are called to vote?
In Colombia there are 39,002,239 people qualified to vote in these elections, according to the National Registry of Civil Status. This includes 20,111,908 women and 18,890,331 men.
To win in the first round, in accordance with article 190 of the Constitution of Colombiaa candidate must obtain half plus one of the votes.
Calculating the number for victory in the first round is not easy, since it will depend, in this way, on the number of people, among those qualified, who actually vote on May 29. For example, in the last elections of 2018, when he won Ivan Duke —the current president—, had 36.227.267 qualified people, but voted in the first round 19,643,676 people (a turnout of 54.22%).
If this participation is maintained, a candidate would have to reach 10,573,507 votes to win in the first round in 2022.
But in Colombia, where the voting is not mandatorythe levels of participation in presidential elections are not stable, and depend on the context of each process.
In 2010, when Juan Manuel Santos won for the first time, the participation was 49.29% in the first round and 44,34% in second. In 2006 she was from 45,05%and in 2002 from 46,47%, to cite two other examples, both with victories by Álvaro Uribe Vélez. This means that the threshold to win on the first round can fluctuate.
How Petro and Gutiérrez arrive
Whatever the final number, the figure of some 10 million votes seems far from the recent performance of Petro and Gutiérrez, who obtained some 4.4 million y 2.1 million votesrespectively, in their party consultations in March.
Petro, for his part, has already stood for presidential elections in Colombia. In his first participation, in 2010, got 1,331,267 votes, while in the second, in 2018, he achieved 4.855.069 in the first round and 8.040.449 in second.
If indeed no candidate crosses the threshold, there will no longer be numerical limitations in the second round of elections on June 19: the candidate who obtains the most votes in that final contest will win.