How Navalny’s Death Could Still Threaten Putin in Upcoming Elections: Analysis and Strategies

2024-03-14 20:14:00
Even in death, Alexei Navalny could represent a strong threat to Vladimir Putin in these elections (AP)

Vladimir Putin’s main opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in strange conditions in a prison in the Arctic almost a month ago and seemed, with this, to give a respite to the president, who will seek re-election in this weekend’s elections, in a context of great social unrest. However, the dissident could still represent a strong threat to his figure, even without being alive.

15 days before he died, Navalny appealed to his followers and asked for their support in a particular move. The dissident called on them to go to the voting centers this Sunday the 17th at 12 noon in a sign of their discomfort at the conditions in which these elections are held. Even if they do not want to vote at that time, the idea is that there will be large concentrations of people in the centers.

“I like the idea that anti-Putin voters go to the polling stations at 12 noon… At noon against Putin,” Navalny wrote then in a message on social networks that he later complemented with a brief explanation of his idea. Faced with the repressive operations that the Kremlin usually orders against any opposition demonstration, the dissident considered that this strategy does not violate any current law or regulation, so it can hardly be quelled.

“What can they do? Will the polling stations close at 12 noon? Will they organize an action in support of Putin at 10 in the morning? Will they register everyone who came at noon and put them on the list of unreliable people?” he joked.

Navalny called on the opposition to appear at electoral centers across the country on Sunday at noon as a sign of opposition to Putin (REUTERS)

Since February 16, the idea was left in the hands of his wife and political heir, Yulia Navalnaya, who promoted it and got multiple people who want to expose that this weekend’s elections will be neither free nor fair to join. .

“Alexei called on people to participate in this protest and that is why for me personally this is so important. “I want to do what he thought was right,” Navalnaya said.

In light of this undisputed support, which was also reflected in the kilometer-long lines that were seen during his funeral and in the vigils and improvised altars that were set up in cities throughout the country, Maxim Reznik, an opponent who expressed his pleasure at “ “Noon with Putin,” he told Politico that “even in death, Navalny is causing maximum damage” to the President and, therefore, insisted on the importance of adhering to the call.

“He gave his entire life for our freedom. The last thing he did was ask us to give him 30 minutes,” he added.

Since Putin modified the Constitution in his favor in 2020, to be able to remain in office longer, and with the history of past elections, the Russian opposition knew that this weekend’s elections would not have any type of democratic guarantee. Even the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, already predicted that the president would win with 90% of the votes, “an enormous margin” compared to 77% in 2018 and despite great social unrest.

Putin launched several strategies to ensure his victory in the elections (Europa Press)

Added to this were the multiple strategies that the Kremlin has been applying to achieve victory, with the least room for doubt.

Among the maneuvers, extortion in exchange for a positive vote has been reported, for example, with prizes for credits on public transportation, cars, properties and even coffee vouchers. State employees and students have also been ordered to cast their votes on specific days and times.

On the other hand, the ruling party promoted a strong campaign based on its ideals of nationalism and homophobia, calling on Russians to vote correctly to avoid the consequences that could accrue to the country if they did not do so. “Be men, go vote!” is heard in one of the spots in which a man is seen shaving his legs and putting on makeup, while the websites of opposition media were blocked.

Several cities, such as Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Ryazan, tried to downplay the “Noon with Putin” call by announcing their own holiday before Orthodox Lent on Sunday at that time.

Likewise, Russia this year will have the shortest presidential list in its modern history, with only four candidates. Thanks to the fact that Putin has managed to have all his opponents exiled, blocked, imprisoned or even dead, only three strategically chosen politicians compete against him.

Nikolai Kharitonov, leader of the Communist Party; Leonid Slutsky, of the Liberal Democratic Party; and Vyacheslav Davankov, of the New People, are the options available to the opposition that does not wish to support Putin. In any case, his differences with the president are few. For example, Davankov claims to seek the liberal niche but, in reality, he outlines few progressive ideas, demanding peace with Ukraine “on our terms,” supporting annexations of this country and military censorship laws, and even promoting a law that bans sex reassignment surgeries.

Finally, even with almost all the risks eliminated for this instance, at the polls themselves, many analysts warn that methods will be used to inflate participation and facilitate manipulation. They even pointed out that the three-day extension of the elections and the implementation of electronic voting are part of these strategies.

What will be seen in this weekend’s elections is “a ‘special electoral operation’ in which Putin reappoints Putin,” warned Reznik (Europa Press)

“What we are about to see is, in reality, a ‘special election operation’ in which Putin reappoints Putin,” Reznik warned, trying to draw a parallel with the term with which the Kremlin refers to the war. in Ukraine.

“The goal is to make everything seem real and create the appearance of majority support to hide, from the eyes of the Russians and the outside world, the fact that Putin has no legal right to participate in these elections in the first place,” added Ekaterina Schulmann, political analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

Be that as it may, the Russian people, dissatisfied with the authoritarianism and control that governs their lives, are determined not to let themselves be trampled in these elections. “During Navalny’s funeral, people realized that there are many of them and that there is a way to show that his opinion matters. In today’s Russia, the ranks have become a symbol of dissidence, a way of expressing civic position,” said disqualified presidential candidate Ekaterina Dunstova.

“Putin has stripped Russian citizens of almost all their rights but, so far, not this one,” concluded Navalny’s ally, Ivan Zhdanov, confident that his voice can no longer be avoided.

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