2023-06-09 04:10:00
A little more than two months before the Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primaries (PASO), a private report analyzed in detail the economic context in which the latest four presidential elections.
The letter bears the signature of Nadine Argañarazhead of the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF), and breaks down the main variables that governed the national economy at the time of voting in 2007, 2011, 2015 y 2019. In addition, it makes a contrast with the current situation.
Inflation, wages and level of economic activity: the pillars that defined the electoral destiny
When delving into what happened in the previous elections, Argañaraz closely studied the behavior of four key indices: activity level, inflation, wages y expectations.
In 2007, the scenario was diametrically opposite. The rise in prices was traveling at 21.5% per yearThe economy was growing at a rate of 8% in twelve months and the purchasing power of citizens increased.
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It should be remembered that at that time Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner she became the first elected president in Argentine history with 45.28% of the vote.
Four years later, activity was still rising at a rate of 6,5%. The average real salary rose 8.2% in the three months prior to the elections in which the then president revalidated her mandate with 54.11%. The inflationary needle marked 23.3%.
The slowdown in the economy deepened in 2015 (2.7%), when Mauricio Macri prevailed once morest Daniel Scioli in a close ballotage. The inflation was 26,9% and salaries escalated in real terms to the 6,5%.
“There was a lower positive variation in GDP together with a higher inflationary expectation, although very far from what happened in 2019 and currently,” the study clarifies.
The last electoral appointment took place in very different circumstances. In effect, the most significant drop in wages of the entire series analyzed was recorded: 7,1%.
On the other hand, the economy declined 2,9% before the elections and prices increased to 54.9%. That lethal combo left the government of Macri y Alberto Fernandez took the post.
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2023 vs. 2019: similarities and differences of two election years
The writing of Nadine Argañaraz argues that the election year most similar to 2023 in terms of economic context is 2019. In both cases, the retraction of the level of activity was close to 3%.
However, they differ in future expectations. “While in 2019 a fall was expected for 2020 (following the election), for 2024 a level similar to that of this year is now expected,” explains the report, which even sees possibilities of growth next year.
Likewise, they agree on the drop in real wages but not on its magnitude. In the first three months of this year, fell 4.2% once morest 7.1% in 2019. It remains to be seen what will happen to this variable until the general elections.
Regarding price levels, four years ago the increase was 54,9%. Currently, forecasts predict a range between 110% y 120%.
“For Argentines, the presidential election of this year 2023 is going to take place in the worst inflationary context of the last five elections. Indeed, regarding the 2007 election inflation has quintupled“, evaluated the economist.
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