Admittedly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its growth forecast for 2022 at 3.2%, already revised three times this year, but it has lowered that expected for 2023 again, this time to 2.7%, i.e. 0.2 point less than the previous revision in July.
“With the exception of the 2008 financial crisis and the acute phase of the pandemic, this is the weakest growth expected since 2001 and it reflects the slowdown of the main economies”, United States, Europe and China for different reasons, specifies the institution.
Because the global economy, which was slowly recovering from the effects of the pandemic and continued to face logistical problems in many sectors, is now facing an unusual chain of shocks.
“The shocks this year will reinforce the consequences of the pandemic which were only partially recovered. In summary, the worst is yet to come and for many people, 2023 will look like a recession,” said the chief economist. of the IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, in a press release.
At the center of the difficulties, persistent inflation, affecting advanced economies but, even more so, emerging and developing countries, and which should reach 8.8% on average worldwide this year (+0.5 points compared to forecasts). of July).
On a positive note, however: global inflation should have peaked in the third quarter (9.5%) and start to fall back from the last quarter of 2022, continuing this trend next year, to return in the last quarter of 2023 to a level comparable to 2021 inflation (4.7%).
The economic slowdown will however affect all of the richest states, starting with the United States: growth there has been revised to just 1.6% in 2022, against 2.3% expected in July. 2023 could be even more difficult, the Fund expecting just 1%.
And the situation is not much better in the euro zone: admittedly, growth should reach 3.1% in 2022, better than expected in July (+0.5 points) but the zone should come close to recession in 2023, at 0.5% growth (-0.7 point compared to July forecasts).
And for some Member States, Germany and Italy, recession seems inevitable next year (-0.3% and -0.2% respectively), while France can hope to stay above the line flotation, with growth of 0.7%. Just like, outside the EU, the United Kingdom, at 0.3%.
China, the world’s second largest economy, is expected to experience its worst year in more than 40 years in 2022, if we exclude the pandemic in 2020, with expected growth of just 3.2%, before recovering slightly. in 2023 (4.4%).
In question, the repeated confinements caused by the zero tolerance policy vis-à-vis the Covid-19 which affected several cities in the country, starting with its economic pole, Shanghai, closed for more than a month.
Russia, whose economy is bearing the full brunt of the sanctions put in place in particular by the United States and the European Union, will experience a recession this year, but the situation should be less marked than envisaged at the beginning of the summer. .
The IMF now anticipates a contraction of 3.4% for 2022, but this is 2.6 points better than the forecasts made last July. Russia, however, is expected to be the only economy in the G20, which will meet in Washington on Wednesday, to experience recession this year.
In a gloomy global context, the Latin America and Caribbean region is seeing its forecasts improve, with growth now expected at 3.5% (+0.5 points) this year, even if its two main economies, the Brazil and Mexico will have less marked growth than the average for the region.
The future remains uncertain, however, underlines the Fund, which recognizes that its forecasts, in particular for 2023, are only valid “if inflation expectations remain stable and monetary tightening does not lead to a generalized recession or a disorderly adjustment of financial markets”.
Especially since the effect of 2022 will be felt in the long term. In a speech on Thursday, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva pointed out that “by 2026 this will represent a loss of 4 trillion dollars for the world economy, the size of the German economy “.
With AFP.