2024-01-03 19:37:15
The liquidation of foreign currency for exports of cereals and oilseeds and their derivatives amounted to US$ 19,742,137,675 in 2023, which meant a drop of 51% (approximately US$ 20,700 million) in relation to the previous year, the Chamber reported. of the Oil Industry (Ciara) and the Cereal Exporters Center (CEC).
Regarding the results of December, companies in the sector settled the sum of US$ 1,245 million, representing a decrease of 66% compared to the same month in 2022, but an improvement of 24% compared to November.
Drought and stock loss
“The income of foreign currency for the month of December is the result of the drought, which has generated losses in available stock of grains, as well as a new export dollar established by Decree 28/23,” indicated Ciara-CEC, in reference to the rise in the price of the official dollar starting December 13.
Likewise, they pointed out that “although the income of foreign exchange in December was higher than November, it was negatively impacted by the low remaining grains of the coarse harvest, wheat production affected by the weather and changes in the foreign trade regime that was established the Central Bank (BCRA)”.
These new provisions of the BCRA, they argued, “did not allow the necessary fluidity, particularly in the collections of processed soy products that contain imported soybeans under the temporary admission regime, which was severely affected by the new regulations of the monetary authority.” .
They also pointed out that “the industry continued with high levels of idle capacity in grain port terminals and in the milling industry.”
The settlement of foreign exchange is fundamentally related to the purchase of grains that will later be exported, either in their same state or as processed products, after industrial transformation.
Most of the foreign exchange income in this sector occurs well in advance of export, an anticipation that is around 30 days in the case of grain exports, and reaches up to 90 in oils and protein flours.
This anticipation also depends on the time of the campaign and the grain in question, so there are no delays in the settlement of foreign currency.
The oilseed-cereal complex, including biodiesel and its derivatives, contributed 48% of Argentina’s total exports in 2022, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec).
The country’s main export product is soybean meal (14.2% of the total), which is an industrialized by-product generated by this agro-industrial complex, which currently has a high idle capacity of close to 50%.
In another order, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) projects a production of 132 M/t for the 2023/2024 campaign, 68% more than in the previous campaign.
This would have a direct impact on exports, which would grow 42%, reaching US$32,961 million if this projection were met, the BCBA stated.
This projected advance is moderated by a decrease in prices compared to the 2022/2023 cycle, while at the fiscal level a significantly greater contribution would be observed, with an increase of 38%, totaling US$ 12,824 million, a figure that includes income from export duties and other national and provincial taxes, the entity detailed.
This value would rise to US$ 13,412 (+44%) with the rates of the new bill, resulting in an improvement in the Gross Agroindustrial Product that would be equivalent to 1.1% of the projected GDP.
Meanwhile, the same entity specified that during the second week after the reestablishment of the Export Increase Program (Decree 28/23), soybean operations were carried out for 2,937,465 tons (tn) (1,020,092 with price); corn, 4,933,817 tons (1,949,175 with price); wheat, 1,888,279 tons (1,425,823 with price); barley, 573,209 tons (437,277 with price); sunflower, 323,891 tons (156,859 with price); and sorghum, 96,551 tons (45,144 with price).
Regarding the registration of Foreign Sales Declarations (DJVE), 835,660 tons of barley, 699,504 tons of sunflower, 199,786 tons of sorghum, 4,802,249 tons of corn, 170,340 tons of wheat and 3,529,796 tons of soybeans were issued.
With 2023 already behind us, the countryside in general begins a new year with a favorable climate and where the sector once again demands from politics lower tax pressure, clear rules of the game and the ordering of the macroeconomy.
With the arrival of the “El Niño” climate phenomenon, the rains were present in a large part of the country’s agricultural region and promise to produce the second best harvest in history, with 137 million tons (M/t), which will allow exports. 99 M/t of grains and income of US$ 35.8 billion.
With the productive panorama clear in terms of climate, added to the devaluation that improves the profitability of the sector and the elimination of restrictions on the foreign marketing of production, the agricultural leadership focuses its efforts on achieving stable and predictable rules of the game, to the time that he insists on lowering the tax pressure.
This last point seems to be the most difficult to achieve since one of the first decisions that Javier Milei’s government made was to promote an increase in withholdings for all agro-industrial productions, with the exception of twenty regional economies, including dairy farming.
Thus, the initiative that is included in the so-called Omnibus Law and that will have to be debated in Congress foresees raising export duties to 15%, which in corn and wheat implies an increase of two points in the rate, while in Beef represents six points, sunflowers eight, and productions such as cotton or peanuts, 15.
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