The photograph that shows the survey of the firms Guarumo and Ecoanalítica, released yesterday by Timeshows that None of the six candidates for the presidency of Colombia – after its publication, the candidate Ingrid Betancourt announced her retirement – will obtain 50% plus one vote to become the head of state for the period 2022-2026.
According to the data of this survey, the distribution of the votes will mean that this Sunday, May 29, two candidates will continue in the race. They will go to a final round on June 19.
Barely nine days before the elections, According to the results of this study, there would be a second round and Gustavo Petro (Historic Pact) and Federico Gutiérrez (Team for Colombia) would be the ones in that race.
Among the results that Guarumo shows, the growth that the candidate Rodolfo Hernández of the League of Anticorruption Leaders has had in recent weeks is also evident.
Petro leads the presidential race in Colombia
According to the survey figures, Petro is the one that continues with the best voting intention, with 37.9%.
The study reflects that in relation to the measurement that was made at the end of last month it increased a little more than one point.
In second place is the former mayor of Medellín Fico Gutiérrez, with 30.8%, practically stable. In other words, the two are static in terms of voting intention compared to the last survey of the same firm.
In the results of the study, it is highlighted that in third place, with 20.3% of voting intentions, is former mayor Rodolfo Hernández. This fact is significant since it shows a growth of more than 7 points since the end of April.
Next comes Sergio Fajardo, from the Centro Esperanza Coalition, with 4.3%, who fell a little more than two points.
Below one percent are Ingrid Betancourt, John Milton Rodríguez and Enrique Gómez. Meanwhile, the blank vote appears at 2.4% and he does not know, does not respond, at 2.2%.
Second round with technical draw
The survey also presented its interviewees with some possible scenarios for the second round. Although Petro has the highest percentage, we must speak of a technical draw since the margin of error is 2.5.
In that eventual second round between Petro and Fico, the former mayor of Bogotá would achieve 45.7% and that of Medellín would keep 42%.
And if the confrontation on June 19 is between the former mayor of Bogotá and Rodolfo Hernández, the current senator would obtain 45.2% of the votes and the one from Bucaramanga would keep 41.5%.
Thus, the House of Nariño would be occupied by a former mayor. Petro ruled Bogotá; Gutierrez, Medellin and Hernandez, Bucaramanga.
Fajardo, who according to this survey is fourth in the voting intention of Bogotá with a downward trend, was president of Medellín and the department of Antioquia.
As well as the liberal dissident Luis Pérez. He will also be on the card as the documents were sent to print for his distribution prior to his resignation.
A decision that was also made by the now ex-candidate Betancourt. That is to say, officially six men compete for the first magistracy.
According to the survey, candidates Rodríguez, from the Colombia Justa Libres movement, and Gómez, from Salvación Nacional, have no chance of passing because both score less than one point.
Datasheet
- Legal Entity that conducted the survey: Guarumo SAS and Ecoanalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS
- Legal Entity that entrusted it: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS
- Funding Source: Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS
- General objective: questions about the image of favorability of the president and intention to vote.
- Universe of study: Colombian men and women over 18 years of age, residing in Colombia, except for the so-called former national territories and the San Andrés archipelago, who expressed their intention to vote in the next presidential elections.
- Sample Design: The sample design is probabilistic.
- Sample size: 2,258 surveys.
- Collection technique: face-to-face survey.
- Collection date: from May 16 to 19, 2022.
- Characters for whom it was inquired: refer to the collection form.
- Margin of error: the margin of error is 2.5% with 95% confidence.
- Sample distribution: the surveys were conducted in the following municipalities: Acacias (52), Argelia (33), Barranquilla (114), Bello (53), Bogotá DC (254), Bucaramanga (101), Buenaventura (82), Cali (127), Cartagena (103), Cúcuta (53), Dosquebradas (32), Duitama (31), Floridablanca (51), Girón (38), Ipiales (45), Jamundí (61), Maicao (47), Manizales (77), Medellin (171), Pamplona (43), Pasto (57), Pereira (69), Popayan (67), Riohacha (68), Soacha (76), Sogamoso (44), Soledad (75), Tunja (48), Turbaco (39), Uribía (37), Villavicencio (65), Viotá (45).
- Sampling frames: municipalities National Population Census.
- Specific questions asked: refer to the collection form.
- Statistician: Gustavo Romero Cruz.
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