2024-03-27 10:31:02
Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Managing Director, Research Division, Innovative Securities (INVX), said that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) T.) There are measures to control Program Trading and Short selling. It is believed that this will help build more confidence. Especially small investors Currently, the proportion of private investors in the Thai stock market is only 30%, from more than 50% in the past. Therefore, such measures will help return trading volumes to similar levels.
While Mr. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, senior strategist for the Thai and international stock markets INVX Investment Strategy Department said that measures to strictly control short selling and trading programs It is expected that this will help slow down selling pressure and reduce pressure on Valuation. It is one of the positive factors that will help support the SET Index to increase in 2Q24 by approximately 38 points, even if the problem is solved. What the SET is currently doing may not be clear when compared to measures in Korea and China. Therefore, the movements of the SET Index may still be volatile.
Meanwhile, other factors that will support the Thai stock market in 2Q24 include a better-than-expected global economy that has a positive impact on profits, which will support the SET to rise 27 points, a reduction in interest rates. Supporting listed companies’ profits to increase by another 1.3%. In the event that interest rates are reduced by 0.25%, it will support the SET to go up 19 points. Cabinet (Cabinet) adjustment from past data. Average returns 3 months after the cabinet adjustment. The big time will cause the SET to increase by 0.4% or up to 8 points while the baht strengthens with support from the weakening dollar which is positive for the SET Index and will support the SET to go up 11 points in the case that the baht strengthens by 1. %
In addition, the acceleration of fiscal year 2024 budget disbursement is another factor that helps support the SET Index to rise 15 points, which will stimulate GDP growth and profits in the short term. The disbursement of the budget will help stimulate economic growth in the second half of the year. From past statistics, after the third budget is passed, the stock market will respond well 1 day after it is passed, but 1 month after the draft is passed, the stock market will increase with an average of approximately 2.4%. However, if the above factors occur together. Together, this may cause the SET Index to return to 1,500 points by the end of 2Q24.
“The growth of the Thai stock market during the next period It will be growth mainly through profits. Because the Thai stock market does not have a new industry like foreign countries, Valuation has not increased. From the fundamentals of the Thai stock market, it will be a Dividend Play rather than a Growth Play. There is no growth rate. There is only Dividend. Growth will really come from Organic Growth.”
The stocks whose fundamentals are better than the index’s decline and current valuation include Food, Commerce, Health care, and Finance, as they have had quite good growth rates over the past 2-3 years. However, the Energy, Bank, Petro and Property groups are value trap groups. Or is it cheap and will continue to be cheap? Therefore, you must focus on investing in stocks with good growth rates.
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