For the first time in history, Inter and Grêmio may compete in the Brasileirão Série B together, according to calculations from the Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).
Projections Point to Historic Gre-Nal Relegation Risk
For the first time in history, Inter and Grêmio may compete in the Brasileirão Série B together. This is what the probability calculations from the Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) indicate. According to the projection, the risk of the two rivals from Rio Grande do Sul being relegated is 35.2%.
The possibility of at least one of the two finishing the championship relegated is even higher: it reaches 92.1%. The scenario in which Grêmio and Inter manage to escape together has only a 7.9% chance, according to Professor Dr. Gilcione Nonato Costa, from UFMG. When the calculation is made separately for each team, Inter appears with a 69.1% probability of relegation, while Grêmio has 57.6%.
To arrive at the probabilities, UFMG considers the performance presented so far and the quality of the opponents that each team still has ahead. Based on these data, several simulations project the possible outcomes for the remainder of the championship. The results show an important relationship between the fates of Inter and Grêmio.
Professor Gilcione Nonato de Souza stated that the important fact is that in half of the simulations where Inter is relegated, Grêmio is also relegated, and for every five simulations in which Grêmio is relegated, Inter is also relegated in three of them.
The scenarios indicate that the Gre-Nal Duo relegated together stands at 35.2%, Only Inter relegated reaches 34.1%, Only Grêmio relegated marks 22.8%, and the Gre-Nal Duo escapes relegation in only 7.9% of cases. The professor’s projection also shows how the chance of relegation varies according to the final score of each team, such that the more points Inter and Grêmio accumulate until the end of the championship, the lower the risk of relegation tends to be.
Opta Projections After the 27th Round
After the majority of the matches of the 27th round of the Brazilian Championship were played on the weekend of September 12 and 13, with the clash between Bahia and Remo scheduled for Monday (16), the perspectives for the duo from Rio Grande do Sul deteriorated considerably. According to Opta’s statistical projections, Grêmio and Internacional now share a critical scenario: both have surpassed the 50% probability mark of falling to Série B.
The situation is particularly grave for the Imortal: it suffered a comeback loss to Vasco 2 to 1 and reached a 56.28% chance of relegation — the worst index between the two clubs from Rio Grande do Sul. Internacional, despite the 2 to 1 victory over bottom-placed Chapecoense, was unable to escape the high risk and remained with a 52.67% probability of falling in division.
The Scenario for Other Threatened Teams in the Tournament
In addition to the Gre-Nal duo, other clubs face significant risk in the Brasileirão, although at less critical levels. Vasco, despite the recent triumph that keeps hopes alive in three competitions this season — Brasileirão, Copa do Brasil, and CONMEBOL Sul-Americana — carries a probability of relegation of 22.87%, well below that faced by the teams from Rio Grande do Sul.
Corinthians remains in a delicate situation: with five consecutive defeats in the national tournament and the recent loss to Flamengo, the Alvinegro adds an 11.62% risk of relegation. Botafogo and São Paulo demonstrate greater tranquility — the Glorioso appears with a 6.07% chance, while the Tricolor from São Paulo has only a 4.22% probability of falling.
Santos managed to distance itself from the critical zone after a few rounds of tension. With only a 1.67% chance of falling, the Peixe has practically already secured its stay in Série A and left behind the period in which it fought directly against relegation. For clubs like Internacional, which continues to seek salvation, every result in the remaining matches of the season becomes absolutely decisive.
