“All the Russian military operation in Ukraine is going according to plan, and the Russian army will achieve all its goals.” This is what Russian President Vladimir Putin announced. Does what he said reflect the reality on the ground? On the tenth day of the war on Ukraine, the truth appears to be different from what the Russian President says. Putin and the Russian army are in trouble. If they retreat in any way, they lose. If the state of stagnation and attrition continues, they are also losers. But if Putin decides to go with his military option to the end, no matter what the cost, he may or may not win the war, and in both cases he will inflict economic, political and diplomatic losses on Russia, which Moscow would have been indispensable for had it not been for the uncalculated adventure of the new tsar.
In the military diaries, there are assurances from Western intelligence sources that the Russian bombing of Ukraine will increase and strengthen in the coming days, but without it reaching the point of confrontation between Russia and NATO. The red lines were drawn between NATO and Russia. The most prominent rule of engagement is that NATO should not impose a no-fly zone, in order to avoid all-out war. This in particular angered the Ukrainian president, who announced that NATO’s decision had given the green light to continue bombing Ukrainian cities and villages. All this means that the war on Ukraine is long, unless the new round of negotiations achieves practical results, which so far seem far-fetched.
Domestically, the Ukraine war began to show its disastrous results. The queues of humiliation returned in front of the fuel stations, especially after a speech by a representative of the fuel distributors, in which he confirmed that the fuel stock is sufficient for only four or five days. Where were the Lebanese officials a month ago to today? The war between Russia and Ukraine did not erupt overnight, and therefore why did the Ministry of Energy not think of a proactive plan to spare Lebanon the consequences of the fuel shortage? On the other hand, the Ministry of Economy announced that the wheat stock is sufficient for a month and a half, and that there is no reason for citizens to rush to buy and store goods. Will the citizen who is “pissed off” by the state believe the assurances of the Ministry of Economy? Does the government have an alternative plan to import, if the situation in Ukraine remains as it is?
Politically, no voice is louder than the megacenter, and everyone is waiting for what the ministerial committee will announce on Tuesday and what the cabinet will decide on Thursday. But the question remains: Why this late awakening to the importance of the megacenter? Is raising the issue again, is it to achieve electoral reform two months before the due date, or to create a pretext for postponing the elections in case the circumstances helped that? No matter how much caution is required, especially since the pillars of the system will not run out of a way to postpone their bitter entitlement. As for you, the Lebanese, do not miss the appointment on the fifteenth of May, and at the polling hour, you should go back and vote here.