Investors Digest Fed Officials’ Hawkish Comment

Investors digested the hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, and the major US stock indexes opened higher on Friday (18th).Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose more than 120 points.

before the deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose more than 120 points or nearly 0.4%,Nasdaq Composite Indexrose more than 50 points or nearly 0.5%,S&P 500 Indexup nearly 0.5%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index rose 0.7%.

US stock marketS&P 500 IndexFutures andNasdaq The 100 index futures rose 0.9% and 1% respectively, after Fed “Eagle King” Bullard (James Bullard) made a tough statement saying that to control inflation, the interest rate needs to rise to at least 5%, which frightened U.S. stocks to fall across the board. Bond yields and the dollar rose. In addition, as soon as Bullard’s remarks came out, the market also raised its expectations for the terminal interest rate.

Foreign media believe that Bullard is only the latest official to warn the market against thinking that the Fed may turn dovish. Although previous reports showed that U.S. inflation cooled last month, the Fed still needs to tighten monetary policy further to curb price pressures.

At the same time, some investors said that hawkish remarks do not necessarily mean that the terminal interest rate will eventually rise above previous expectations, and may just be diluting investor sentiment.

However, the market is gradually intensifying concerns that the continued rise in interest rates may hurt economic growth. The U.S. Treasury bond yield is in the most serious inversion in 40 years, and the economic recession alarm bells are ringing. Copper and oil prices, which are sensitive to economic growth, are likely to fall this week on worries about a deteriorating demand outlook.

Trading volume in U.S. stocks is breaking records ahead of the $2.1 trillion option expiration on Friday. The monthly event, known as the “OpEx,” has a reputation for sparking volatility, as traders and traders en masse rebalance their big exposures on the day.this weekS&P 500 IndexIt has briefly broken through the 4,000-point level twice, and among the contracts rolled over today, this position has the highest open interest.

As of 22:00 on Friday (18th) Taipei time:
S&P 500 Index Daily Chart (Graph: Juheng.com)
Focus stocks:

Jingdong (JD-US) fell 2.33% in early trade to $56.18 per share

Chinese e-commerce company JD.com’s performance in the last quarter exceeded expectations. The main reason is that China’s new crown epidemic risk control measures have allowed more consumers to switch to online shopping, which has driven JD.com’s substantial growth in the last quarter.

JD.com’s revenue increased by 11.4% year-on-year toRMB 243.5 billion yuan (the following units are the same), far exceeding the 243.1 billion yuan expected by Wall Street analysts; the operating profit in the third quarter increased by 234.6% to 8.7 billion yuan, compared with 3.8 billion yuan in the same period last year. The company’s net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the third quarter was 6 billion yuan, compared with a loss of 2.8 billion yuan in the same period last year; in the third quarter, the adjusted American depositary receipt (ADS) reported 6.27 yuan per share, far exceeding market expectations of 4.46 yuan.

Gap(GPS-US) rose 8.89 percent to $13.87 a share in early trade

Gap, a branded apparel company, surprised Wall Street analysts by recovering its profitability in the last quarter, and its revenue performance was also better than expected, prompting the pre-market share price of the US stock market to surge by more than 5%. According to the financial report, Gap’s revenue in the last quarter increased by 2% to US$4.04 billion, and its diluted earnings per share increased by 163% to US$0.71, both of which were better than analysts’ estimates of US$3.82 billion and US$0.

Applied materials (AMAT-US) rose 2.28 percent to $106.83 a share in early trade

U.S. semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials announced strong fourth-quarter revenue and profit, and its forecast for the current quarter (the first quarter of fiscal year 2023) also beat market expectations. It is optimistic that the improvement of supply chain bottlenecks will help offset the economic downturn. The blow, the pre-market share price rose more than 4%.

Applied Materials’ revenue in the last quarter increased by 10% to US$6.75 billion, and its adjusted profit per share was reported at US$2.03, both of which were better than analysts’ estimates of US$6.45 billion and US$1.73. The company forecast revenue in the range of $6.3 billion to $7.1 billion for the quarter and earnings per share of $1.75 to $2.11, compared with analysts’ estimates of $6.34 billion and $1.77, respectively.

Today’s key economic data:
  • The annualized total of existing home sales in the United States in October was reported at 4.43 million, expected to be 4.38 million, and the previous value was 4.71 million
  • The annualized monthly rate of existing home sales in the United States in October was -5.9%, expected -7.3%, and the previous value was -1.5%
Wall Street Analysis:

James Athey, investment director of Abrdn Investment Management Company, said that the Fed still maintains a hawkish stance, with tough words and continues to raise interest rates to fight inflation, but this does not mean that the terminal interest rate must be higher than the market expected a week or two ago. Dilute investor sentiment.

Bank of America analysts said that since the Fed may only adjust policy in June and July, interest rate hikes and corporate earnings may have a negative impact on the stock market. While U.S. inflation showed signs of slowing last month and inflows into equity funds surged last week, much of the bear market rally is over.


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