The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, in an Israeli missile strike last Saturday has ignited speculation about a potential turning point for the Islamic Republic, with some observers drawing parallels to the fall of the Berlin Wall. The event, coupled with widespread protests earlier this year and ongoing regional tensions, has fueled belief that profound transformation is at hand for Iran.
The sudden removal of Khamenei, who held power for 37 years, leaves a significant political vacuum. While a succession plan is reportedly underway, with his son Mojtaba emerging as a potential frontrunner, analysts suggest the circumstances surrounding Khamenei’s death – a targeted strike – create unprecedented instability. The question now is whether the regime can navigate this crisis while maintaining control and suppressing dissent.
“I think the death of Khamenei is close to a Berlin Wall moment, in the sense that it marks the complete of an era,” said Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University. “I think the psychological effect is profound.” The comparison to the fall of the Berlin Wall, a symbol of the end of the Cold War and the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe, highlights the potential for a similar unraveling of the current Iranian theocracy.
Khamenei, 86, held the final say on all state matters within Iran’s system of velayat-e faqih – rule by Islamic jurisprudence established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. His influence extended to critical decisions regarding Iran’s nuclear program, relations with the United States and Israel, social reforms, and women’s rights. He was largely known for his intransigence on these issues.
A Personalized Leadership
Analysts disagree on the Islamic Republic’s resilience to leadership change. Milani argues that Khamenei’s leadership was highly personalized, citing comments from former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. According to Milani, their veiled criticisms suggested Khamenei was the primary obstacle to progress and compromise with the West. “Every idiot knew that they were talking about Khamenei,” Milani stated.
The circumstances of Khamenei’s death – killed alongside his wife in an Israeli missile strike – have created a uniquely volatile situation. Naysan Rafati, a senior Iran analyst with the International Crisis Group, noted the inherent challenges of a succession even under normal circumstances, but emphasized that this transition is occurring “in the most violent conditions that the state could have anticipated.” The potential for further targeting of key figures during the succession process adds to the uncertainty.
Signs of Strain Within the Regime
Recent events suggest the Iranian regime was already under considerable strain. The planned funeral for Khamenei has been postponed, reportedly due to fears of further attacks targeting senior officials in attendance. Similarly, the Assembly of Experts – the 88-member clerical body responsible for electing a new leader – convened remotely this week, rather than at its headquarters in Qom, which was reportedly bombed on Tuesday.
Authorities have also intensified pressure on political prisoners while simultaneously releasing other inmates on bail, amid reports of strikes on Iranian jails, including Evin prison, which was targeted in a 12-day war last June. Reports indicate that prisoners in ward 209, a high-security section of Evin prison, have been dispersed to other locations as a precaution.
Security forces have reportedly fired live rounds at homes displaying anti-regime slogans, a common occurrence during recent unrest, and members of the Basij militia have been seen patrolling residential neighborhoods while broadcasting pro-regime messages. These actions suggest a desperate attempt to intimidate opposition and bolster morale.
The Role of the IRGC and Future Prospects
Despite these efforts, questions remain about the regime’s long-term viability. Some analysts believe the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could play a crucial role in stabilizing the situation. Alex Vatanka, Iran program director at the Middle East Institute in Washington, suggested the IRGC could redeem itself by easing domestic repression and adopting a more conciliatory approach, potentially paving the way for a more pliable successor than Mojtaba Khamenei.
Vatanka also noted the potential for the IRGC to leverage nationalist sentiment and invoke the traditional Iranian Shia spirit of martyrdom to rally support against external adversaries. He argued that this approach could allow the regime to reframe the narrative, shifting from accusations of domestic repression to defending the homeland.
Milani, yet, remains skeptical, arguing that Khamenei’s intransigence and the resulting repression have made the current system unsustainable. He believes the velayat-e faqih system is “completely dead,” regardless of who succeeds Khamenei. He added that Khamenei “resented the idea that there might be an Iran without him, or there might be a regime without him.”
The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining the future of Iran. The succession process, the response to potential further attacks, and the level of public unrest will all play a significant role. The regime’s ability to adapt and address the underlying grievances of the population will be crucial to its survival.
As Iran stands at this potential inflection point, the international community will be watching closely. The unfolding events have far-reaching implications for regional stability and global security.
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