The immediate reason is the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in the Syrian city of Damascus at the beginning of this month. Seven Iranians, members of the country’s Revolutionary Guard, were killed. US President Biden says he fears that there will be a ‘significant’ attack on Israel in retaliation within days.
Bloomberg news agency reported on Friday evening that Israel is taking into account a counter-attack within 48 hours and also the Wall Street Journal talks about ‘Friday or Saturday’. The US is currently sending reinforcements to the Middle East due to the threat. Several countries are recalling their citizens from Israel and Iran, Lufthansa is ceasing its flights to Tehran and the European gas price is rising sharply.
“I find it strange that something like this is announced in advance,” says Arabist Leo Kwarten. “That immediately raises questions for me.” Because, Kwarten explains, Iran is a country that works very calculatingly, uses psychological warfare and decides where and when to carry out an attack. “One thing is certain,” says Kwarten. “There has been contact between Iran and the US in recent days and both do not want this to get out of hand. They do not want an escalation.”
More tensions since October 7
Relations between countries in the Middle East have always been tense, but since the war between Hamas and Israel that started six months ago, the situation has become even more tense. Iran supports Hamas and therefore wants Israel to stop bombing Gaza. Iran’s greatest enemy is America, a staunch ally of Israel. Other countries are also taking a clear position: the European Union will stand behind Israel, while Russia and China side with Iran.
If an escalation occurs, many countries will be immediately involved in the conflict. And although Kwarten thinks it won’t happen in the short term, the threat is always there. “Iran is now in a difficult position. On the one hand, they consider themselves a major power in the region and that is partly why they cannot simply allow such an attack to happen. It is unheard of for a country to attack another country’s embassy, That is a red line that Israel has crossed. So Iran must respond.”
Peter Malcontent, historian at Utrecht University and specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, also agrees. “We have to take it seriously. Israel has bombed a part of Iran in Syria, because that is how we see a consulate. This hits a country very hard and Iran has little choice but to carry out a retaliatory attack. The only question is: on which dish?”
Psychological warfare
Because Iran also knows that the US stands firmly behind Israel and that militarily they have no chance in a larger conflict. “Iran also sees this as an attempt by Israel to provoke Iran,” says Kwarten. “But if there is one thing Iran does not do, it is act on emotion. Their adage is: if we take revenge, we will do it in a dish that should be served cold.” In other words: especially not when the situation is as tense as it is now.
According to Kwarten, we must therefore interpret the threatening words that Iran utters and the lack of clarity about the possible closure of its airspace due to a missile attack in a different way. “Iran is engaging in psychological warfare. The idea behind these messages is to increase tension, but at the same time not reveal when and what kind of attack Iran will carry out.”
It is therefore to be expected that there will be a counterattack, but it may be more symbolic than a direct confrontation with Israel. “The most logical thing is an attack on an Israeli army base,” says Malcontent. “Military targets are hit less hard than civilian targets. Then Iran can hope that Israel will not take revenge.” But much will depend on how allies respond. The US on one side and China on the other. “The question is to what extent they can keep the situation calm. They will say: think before you start.”
US influence
No one wants this war and yet tensions are running high. How can it get to this point? “If you try to approach everything rationally in the Middle East, you quickly miss the point,” says Malcontent. Examples from the past show that incidents sometimes followed each other so quickly, that the swords were sharpened so sharply, that countries ended up in a war and ‘couldn’t go back’.
“That is precisely why America continues to support Israel, because that way they can exert influence and try to maintain stability,” Malcontent explains. “But you see that they are dependent on what those countries do. You cannot look over your shoulders at every moment, governments also decide for themselves what they do.” The Pentagon reacted with frustration to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. America would not have known anything and therefore could not have taken safety measures as a precaution.
“I think they are genuinely angry because this makes American targets in the region vulnerable. But it is also Israel’s trademark,” Malcontent says. “The support from the US is appreciated, but when push comes to shove, they decide for themselves. And if Israel had warned the US, it would have said: don’t do it.”
Diversionary maneuver
“If you think very cynically, you can say that those in charge in Jerusalem would benefit from a war with Iran, because that draws attention away from Gaza,” says Malcontent. “Netanyahu also knows that the US and the EU will support him in this.”
But then Iran ‘must’ first come up with that revenge attack and that remains to be seen, as Iran knows that the consequences of this could be major. Why do the Americans keep putting out these messages?
“That could also be a diversionary maneuver by Biden,” Kwarten thinks. “Biden has been calling on Israel for a ceasefire in Gaza and to make progress on negotiations. But it seems as if Israel is resisting that. Calling for a possible attack from Iran is a welcome distraction for America to get out of that pressure.”
“It may be that nothing happens, or that there will be a revenge attack at a later time. But the tension has increased.”