Israel is weighing a covert operation modeled on its 2024 exploding-pager attacks against Hezbollah to target Iran’s top military and security leadership, potentially eliminating key commanders and disrupting the country’s wartime command structure. The strategic calculus comes amid growing uncertainty over the possibility of renewed military strikes by Washington and Tel Aviv.
Mapping the Power Centers in Tehran
Former Mossad deputy head of global operations Oded Ailam stated in interviews that a pager-style operation targeting Iran’s military establishment is “fully on the table.” Ailam identified four senior figures as the individuals exercising real power within Tehran: Ahmad Vahidi, Basij commander Hossein Taeb, Iranian Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi, and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaee.
According to insights shared with the New York Post and other outlets, this military establishment has emerged as the principal center of power inside the regime. Political officials in Tehran have increasingly struggled to maintain control over strategic decisions. Disagreements between these entrenched military hardliners and political figures have repeatedly complicated Tehran’s indirect negotiations with Washington.
Echoes of Operation Grim Beeper
The proposed operation draws direct parallels with Israel’s September 2024 covert campaign against Hezbollah, widely known as Operation Grim Beeper. During that campaign, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the Iran-backed militant group exploded across Lebanon in two successive waves.
The first wave struck on September 17, 2024, when thousands of AR-924 pagers—which Hezbollah had ordered in a batch of approximately 5,000 units and which had been intercepted and laced with concealed explosives—detonated simultaneously. A second wave followed on September 18, targeting handheld walkie-talkies across Lebanon and Syria. Reuters figures indicate the attacks killed at least 39 people and injured more than 3,400, devastating the militant group’s command network.
Regional Displacements and Military Posture
The discussions surrounding a targeted covert strike coincide with unmistakable shifts in regional military posture. Indications are mounting that Washington and Tel Aviv are preparing for a possible resumption of military operations following the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is reportedly heading to the Middle East to join the USS George Washington and USS George W.
Public messaging from political and military figures remains mixed. While Trump remarked that the war “will end soon,” retired General Jack Keane has argued that any renewed campaign must directly target Iran’s leadership alongside its nuclear program, energy infrastructure, and ballistic missile and drone facilities.
Questions remain regarding the timing of any potential escalation and the precise mechanisms Tel Aviv might employ to bypass Iran’s internal security apparatus. With military commanders dug in and political leadership sidelined, the threshold for a high-stakes intelligence strike continues to lower.
