The Lebanese never thought that they would find themselves on a line between 3 deadlines that intertwined in determining the direction of two fateful tracks, the first political-constitutional shaped by the presidential elections with its “twin” represented by the file of forming the new government, and the second diplomatic-economic-security demarcation titled maritime demarcation with Israel.
While the first of next November was imprinting on the Lebanese that it would be the opening of the third consecutive presidential vacancy since 2008, amid the turn of the 24 days separating the end of President Michel Aoun’s term as a race with a “deadly time” to form a government that will either be born “Caesarean” or open its non-formation In order for the vacuum phase to turn the door on “severe evils”, the first of November, in turn, attacked the Lebanese agenda, after the deadline for the legislative elections became a pivotal point during which the demarcation agreement “survives” or is carried forward to beyond, with the risks of “death” in any case. Benjamin Netanyahu’s victory, as well as depriving President Joe Biden of a multi-dimensional diplomatic achievement on the way to the thorny midterm elections in the “American November” (the eighth of it), which the “land of the cedar” can no longer ignore.
As Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri set next Thursday as a date for a second presidential election “no session” as if it were a date for “blaming” it was overshadowed by a symbolism coinciding with the anniversary of October 13 (the military operation that ousted General Michel Aoun from Baabda Palace in 1990), which is preparing for “the current” The Free Patriotic Movement” was transformed into a rehearsal for the scene of “a salute and loyalty” to President Aoun, supplemented by a “human sash” that is intended to accompany his departure from the palace on the afternoon of the 31st of this month. Telephone” around the clock with the American mediator, Amos Hochstein, as soon as climates spread and Israeli leaks circulated about Tel Aviv’s rejection of the notes that Lebanon made on Washington’s proposal, and that the chances of achieving the agreement before the Israeli legislative elections have become weak.
“Tough hours” of negotiations became electoral “boxing gloves” in Tel Aviv
Since the atmosphere of the Israeli response to the remarks that were described in Lebanon prior to their formulation and submission to Hochstein as “not essential and supposed not to affect the completion of the agreement”, the maritime demarcation file seemed to be going through “difficult hours” despite the information that Tel Aviv does not refuse Agreement, but some Lebanese notes on the draft.
It was not possible, under the heavy dust that enveloped the fate of this strategic file, to predict its fate, amid Beirut, in its first reaction to the climates received from Israel, by declaring that “Lebanon did not receive an official Israeli response regarding requests to amend the draft demarcation agreement, and we want to know if The refusal is final or it can be negotiated.” In parallel with the assertion of the Deputy Speaker of Parliament, Elias Bousaab, who conducted the “Dawn Discussions” with Hochstein and his legal team on Lebanon’s observations and their foundations, “I am still in touch with Hochstein every hour to solve the outstanding problems, and 90 have been completed in percent of the agreement, but the remaining 10 percent is decisive.” And the announcement of the Director General of Public Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, “we are not concerned with the Israeli response, and we are waiting for the American mediator to assume his responsibility.”
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While it was reported from Lebanese sources that the agreement is still on the track and that the climates that are being circulated by Israel are “to save face,” in parallel with the assertion of senior officials in Tel Aviv that “it appears from Lebanon’s observations that the Lebanese believe that the agreement is not good for them, and if they do not back down.” On essential observations, we will not reach an agreement.” It was clear that the “little demons” as described by Bou Saab a few days ago began to grow after this file sank into Israeli legal as well as political-electoral complications, which are feared to get stuck in their nets.
And if attention is drawn to what the American mediator will do for fear of the “collapse” of the negotiations that Washington is betting on its success within days, and which it has lost by not using them in the Israeli “electoral boxing,” will it be possible to circumvent the emerging knot through creative diplomacy that turns corners, even in an appendix to the agreement that “guarantees” it? Washington, questions have arisen about whether Yair Lapid, the “stalker” of Benjamin Netanyahu, who is no longer able to make any further concessions in the demarcation file, prefers to use the Lebanese observation paper and reject it to tighten the electoral nerve and emulate Netanyahu’s extremism in an attempt to secure victory in the elections and the demarcation agreement afterwards, meaning File bit delay? Will it be guaranteed, in return, that Netanyahu, who “lies” to the agreement, will defeat it, which will mean his victory, unless the demarcation was accomplished before the “legislativeness of Israel”, torpedoing the possibility of concluding it and thus opening the door again to war scenarios?
Yesterday, the Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said, after his meeting with Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, that the maritime demarcation agreement with Israel is “on the verge of completion” and that this agreement means avoiding a “certain war” in the region, amid a pause in media outlets. Politics when Lapid’s push to bully “little devils” coincides with a possible suspension or at least to brake the demarcation, while stressing that “any further negotiations will stop if Hezbollah threatens the gas exploration platform in the Karish field,” and his defense minister affirmed readiness for war in case the agreement stumbles and is targeted “ Hezbollah, the Israeli infrastructure, then directed its army to prepare for a security escalation on the borders of Lebanon.
Beirut’s non-agreement to recognize the “buoyant line” as a maritime border (it will have repercussions on the land demarcation and the points Lebanon has reservations about on the Blue Line, including point B1)
While President Aoun was announcing to his visitors that the remarks made by the Lebanese side on the offer made by Hochstein “guarantee Lebanon’s rights to explore for oil and gas in the specified fields in the exclusive economic zone, and these remarks prevent any interpretations that do not apply to the framework set by Lebanon for the delimitation process.” During the months-long negotiations, Al-Hadath TV reported that there were two essential points in the Lebanese remarks, which were rejected by Tel Aviv:
Beirut’s non-acceptance of recognizing the “buoyant line” as a maritime border (it will have repercussions on the land demarcation and the points Lebanon has reservations about on the Blue Line, including point B1), with its implications for the establishment of a “security zone” near the Naqoura coast.
The second is Lebanon’s requirement that it have the right of veto with regard to the profits that Israel will receive from “Total” as compensation for it for relinquishing the entire Qana field – with its extension south of Line 23 – in the interest of Lebanon, which also wants (according to Al-Hadath TV) to know in advance the size of the profits and refuses Use of the term “compensation” but rather “financial arrangements.”